With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.6x Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAFT) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 35x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Safety Insurance Group has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For Safety Insurance Group?
Safety Insurance Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 139% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 51% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we are not surprised that Safety Insurance Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Safety Insurance Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Safety Insurance Group that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Safety Insurance Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
