Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Unfortunately the Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) share price slid 15% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 30%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 1.5% in the last three years.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Albany International share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 1.4%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It seems quite likely that the market was expecting higher growth from the stock. But looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
Given the yield is quite low, at 1.3%, we doubt the dividend can shed much light on the share price. Albany International's revenue is actually up 16% over the last year. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Albany International
A Different Perspective
Albany International shareholders are down 14% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 30%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
Albany International is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.