Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly
Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (HKG:9633) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
由巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录直言不讳地表示,"最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。" 当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢观察其债务使用情况,因为债务过多可能导致企业破产。我们注意到农夫山泉(临时代码)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东该担心其债务使用吗?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过融资还是依靠自身的现金流。资本主义的一个组成部分是"创造性破坏"的过程,失败的企业被其银行毫不留情地清算。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,一家公司不得不以廉价的价格发行股份,以永久性地稀释股东权益,仅仅是为了巩固其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表着廉价的资本,尤其是在它替代一家有能力以高回报率再投资的公司中的稀释时。当我们审视债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平的结合。
What Is Nongfu Spring's Net Debt?
农夫山泉的净债务是多少?
As you can see below, Nongfu Spring had CN¥3.86b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. But it also has CN¥19.0b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥15.2b net cash.
正如下文所示,截止2024年6月,农夫山泉的债务为38.6亿人民币,与前一年大致相同。您可以点击图表查看更详细的信息。但它还有190亿人民币的现金来抵消这笔债务,这意味着它的净现金为152亿人民币。
How Strong Is Nongfu Spring's Balance Sheet?
农夫山泉的资产负债表有多强?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Nongfu Spring had liabilities of CN¥29.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥671.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥19.0b and CN¥703.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥9.93b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
从最近的资产负债表可以看出,农夫山泉在一年内到期的负债为290亿人民币,超过一年到期的负债为67120万人民币。另一方面,它有190亿人民币的现金以及70320万人民币的应收账款将在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出99.3亿人民币。
Given Nongfu Spring has a humongous market capitalization of CN¥378.8b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Nongfu Spring boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
鉴于农夫山泉拥有3788亿人民币的庞大市值,很难相信这些负债会构成很大威胁。但是,负债数量足以让我们建议股东继续关注资产负债表。因此,尽管负债不少,农夫山泉仍然有净现金,因此可以公平地说它并没有沉重的债务负担!
In addition to that, we're happy to report that Nongfu Spring has boosted its EBIT by 34%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nongfu Spring can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
除此之外,我们很高兴地报告,农夫山泉的EBIT增长了34%,从而降低了未来债务偿还的风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是首要的起点。但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定农夫山泉能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,了解分析师的盈利预测。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Nongfu Spring may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, Nongfu Spring recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最后,虽然税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,但放贷人只接受冷硬的现金。农夫山泉可能在资产负债表上有净现金,但看看企业在利息和税之前的盈利(EBIT)如何转化为自由现金流仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其对债务管理的需求和能力。在最近的三年中,农夫山泉的自由现金流占其EBIT的78%,这在正常范围内,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税。这笔冷硬的现金意味着它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
Summing Up
总结
We could understand if investors are concerned about Nongfu Spring's liabilities, but we can be reassured by the fact it has has net cash of CN¥15.2b. And we liked the look of last year's 34% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Nongfu Spring's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Nongfu Spring is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
我们可以理解投资者对农夫山泉负债的担忧,但可以让我们安心的是,它有净现金152亿人民币。而且我们喜欢去年34%同比EBIT增长的表现。那么农夫山泉的债务是个风险吗?在我们看来似乎并不是。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到关于债务的大部分知识。但最终,每个公司都有可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,在我们的投资分析中,农夫山泉显示出一个警告信号,您应该了解...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。
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