国家报废更新补贴标准实施差异化鼓励，即“对购买新能源乘用车补2万元、购买2.0升及以下排量燃油乘用车补1.5万元”，由于报废更新的新能源较燃油车有多5000元的补贴优势，加之各地对以旧换新政策的新能源车普遍比燃油车多3000元左右的补贴。因此绝大部分报废更新和部分以旧换新用户选择了购买新能源车，补贴政策尤其是推动入门级纯电动车与狭义插混市场强势增长，进一步夯实新能源渗透率的扩张基础。Various auto manufacturers have also started to enhance Consumer attention through promotion for the Singles' Day Sales and the mid-month Guangzhou auto show, supported by multiple favorable factors that jointly push the heat of the auto market in November to further rise.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, on December 14, Cui Dongshu stated that the auto market in November continues the relatively high prosperity seen since October, with the effects of the scrapping and replacement policies continuing to be released, stabilizing the market; auto manufacturers have also started to enhance Consumer attention through promotion for the Singles' Day Sales and the mid-month Guangzhou auto show, supported by multiple favorable factors that jointly push the heat of the auto market in November to further rise.
Since the announcement of the scrapping and replacement policies, the effects have far exceeded those of real estate stimulus policies, being among the few subsidies that can have an immediate impact. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of November 18, the number of applications for national auto scrapping and replacement subsidies has exceeded 2 million each, totaling over 4 million. Although the implementation time of the replacement subsidies is short, their incremental effect is notably faster than the growth in the number of scrapping updates, reflecting to some extent the strong potential for residents' demand for upgrading purchases.
The national scrapping and replacement subsidy standards implement differentiated encouragement, namely, 'a subsidy of 0.02 million yuan for purchasing Electric Vehicles and 0.015 million yuan for purchasing RBOB Gasoline Passenger Vehicles with an engine of 2.0 liters or less.' Since the subsidy advantage for scrapping updates of Electric Vehicles is 5,000 yuan more than for RBOB Gasoline vehicles, along with local old-for-new policies generally providing around 3,000 yuan more for Electric Vehicles compared to RBOB Gasoline vehicles, the vast majority of scrapping update and some old-for-new users chose to purchase Electric Vehicles. The subsidy policies, in particular, strongly promote the growth of entry-level pure electric vehicles and the narrow hybrid market, further consolidating the expansion foundation of New energy penetration.
In November 2024, the retail growth rate for Passenger Vehicles is slightly higher than that for wholesale. Due to the demand increase for sedans resulting from scrapping updates during August to October, the old-for-new policy in November has driven up the demand for SUVs. In November, sedan retail was lower than SUV retail, with significant increases mainly in the sales of A00-class sedans; high-end B-class sedans performed well, although A-class sedan sales suffered considerable losses.
The SUV market shows strong high-end growth, with B-class and C-class SUVs performing considerably better than last year.
From a structural perspective, mid to low-end Consumer demand is sluggish, while high-end Consumer demand is strong. The B-class in the sedan market is performing well; meanwhile, the high-end SUV market has shown strong performance, with B-class and C-class SUVs significantly improved compared to last year.
1. Trends in the economy passenger car market.
1. Performance of the A00-class sedan market.
In November 2024, wholesale of A00-class sedans reached 0.1739 million units, accounting for 14.05% of the wholesale market share, representing a year-on-year growth of 39% and a month-on-month increase of 12% compared to last month. Retail sales in November 2024 increased by 36% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month compared to last month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 1.0885 million units, with a cumulative increase of 47% in wholesale sales from manufacturers; during the same period, domestic retail reached 1.1091 million units, with a cumulative increase of 33%.
The A00-class market has returned to the competitive landscape of 20 years ago, where brands like Tianjin, Chery, Geely, Changan, and BYD all had good products in the A00-class segment. Recently, diversified A00-class Block Orders and new models from BYD, Geely, Changan, Chery, and FAW Bestune have performed prominently, and micro Electric Vehicles are gradually exhibiting their growth potential.
2. Trends in the main models of A0-level sedans.
A0级轿车2024年11月批发0.147 million台，占批发份额11.88%，批发较去年同期同比增长1%，批发环比今年上月增长9%；2024年11月零售较去年同期同比增长7%，零售环比今年上月增长9%。2024年1-11月批发数量0.9387 million台，厂家批发销售累计下降20%；2024年1-11月国内零售数量0.6238 million台，零售累计下降21%。
The characteristics of the replacement of gasoline vehicles by independent electric vehicles are evident, and the competitive structure has shifted from being dominated by joint ventures to being dominated by independents. Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda maintained a strong position in the early stages, but the trend of the fuel-efficient entry-level vehicles produced by independent brands has been relatively difficult in recent years.
The trend of full electrification of A0-level sedans is obvious, with basically no strong rbob gasoline car products, reflecting significant advantages of independent pure electric products.
3、A0级SUV销量走势
A0级SUV 2024年11月批发0.207 million台，占批发份额13.05%，批发较去年同期同比下降8%，批发环比今年上月下降4%；2024年11月零售较去年同期同比下降11%，零售环比今年上月下降2%。2024年1-11月批发数量1.8929 million台，厂家批发销售累计下降9%；2024年1-11月国内零售数量1.1296 million台，零售累计下降15%。
主流小型SUV的日韩系基本退出市场，自主的电动车表现较强。
2. Trends in the A-level passenger car market.
Trends in the compact sedan block orders market.
In November 2024, the wholesale of compact cars reached 0.4588 million units, accounting for 37.08% of the wholesale market share. The wholesale remained flat compared to the same period last year and saw an 8% increase compared to last month this year. Retail in November 2024 decreased by 1% year-on-year, but increased by 4% month-on-month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 4.0438 million units, with cumulative manufacturer wholesale sales declining by 13%. For the same period, domestic retail quantity was 3.8113 million units, with cumulative retail declining by 10%.
New energy vehicles dominate the mainstream car market, with BYD leading significantly, while the market for Volkswagen's RBOB Gasoline vehicles still has some space. RBOB Gasoline vehicles remain the most practical choice for mainstream family cars.
Trends in the compact SUV block orders market.
In November 2024, the wholesale of compact SUVs was 0.9006 million units, accounting for 56.79% of the wholesale market share. The wholesale increased by 21% compared to the same period last year and by 8% compared to last month this year. Retail in November 2024 grew by 21% year-on-year and by 4% month-on-month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 7.1273 million units, with cumulative manufacturer wholesale sales increasing by 12%. Domestic retail quantity for the same period was 5.2882 million units, with cumulative retail increasing by 6%.
The landscape of the mainstream SUV market is changing rapidly, with BYD and Chery's SUVs performing exceptionally well, achieving a comprehensive breakthrough for domestic and international independent SUVs.
Trends in the B-class passenger vehicle market.
1. Market trends for B-class sedans.
In November 2024, the wholesale of B-class sedans was 0.3918 million units, accounting for a wholesale share of 31.67%, with a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of 6% compared to last month. Retail in November 2024 increased by 30% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 11% compared to last month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 3.5155 million units, with a cumulative increase of 24% in wholesale sales by manufacturers. From January to November 2024, the domestic retail quantity was 3.1876 million units, with a cumulative increase of 23% in retail.
The high-end sedan market of Japanese brands is rapidly shrinking, while the high-end new energy domestic brands are quickly rising, especially in the high-end market for rental car-hailing services being dominated by domestic electric vehicles.
2. Market trends for B-class SUVs.
In November 2024, the wholesale of B-class SUVs was 0.4286 million units, accounting for a wholesale share of 27.02%, with a year-on-year increase of 27% compared to the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of 11% compared to last month. Retail in November 2024 increased by 24% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 12% compared to last month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 3.5161 million units, with a cumulative increase of 21% in wholesale sales by manufacturers. From January to November 2024, the domestic retail quantity was 3.1098 million units, with a cumulative increase of 21% in retail.
The high-end SUV market's rapid rise of domestic new energy vehicles weakens the dominance of traditional premium gasoline vehicles, with recent slowing down of premium brands such as BMW.
3. Trends in the B-class and above MPV market.
In November 2024, the wholesale of B-class MPVs reached 0.0608 million units, accounting for 56.9% of the wholesale share, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and a month-on-month increase of 7% compared to last month this year; the retail in November 2024 increased by 13% year-on-year and grew by 1% month-on-month compared to this month. From January to November 2024, the wholesale quantity was 0.5565 million units, with a cumulative increase of 3%; the domestic retail quantity from January to November 2024 was 0.5305 million units, with a cumulative increase of 3%.
The high growth phase of the MPV market has shifted to a low growth trend. The performance of Tengshi and Chuanqi MPVs is exceptionally strong, while the advantages of Japanese MPVs are rapidly declining, and the GL8 is also in an adjustment period.
