Natural gas prices are expected to decline by the end of this year. However, the market has an optimistic outlook for 2025, mainly due to increased exports and demand driven by AI.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, natural gas prices are expected to decline by the end of this year. However, the market has an optimistic outlook for 2025, mainly due to increased exports and demand driven by AI.
Francisco Blanch, head of Bank of America's Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, recently stated: "We have a constructive view on Electrical Utilities, and because of our constructive view on Electrical Utilities, we believe natural gas will perform well."
So far this year, natural gas prices have fallen by 13%, mainly due to warmer winter weather and oversupply. However, industry observers expect natural gas exports to increase, and the return of manufacturing facilities and AI Datacenters will lead to increased demand for Electrical Utilities.
Blanch from Bank of America stated: "These centers must be running 24/7." From now until 2030, the power demand for Datacenters is expected to grow at a rate of 10% to 15% per year, and by 2030, this number could account for 5% of the total global power demand.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of BOK Financial, stated: "Natural gas will be used to build infrastructure and provide power for power plants." He added, "Natural gas will be the fuel of the future."
Energy equipment manufacturer and service company GE Vernova (GEV) recently raised its forecast for gas turbines.
GE Vernova's CEO Scott Strazik recently stated: "Think about the USA, where currently 40% to 45% of electricity comes from Henry Hub Natural Gas generation, and we are about to enter a true load cycle. In other parts of the world, this figure is close to 25%. However, as other regions transition to Henry Hub Natural Gas like the USA—such as moving from Coal to Henry Hub Natural Gas—the proportion of Henry Hub Natural Gas generation will only increase."
The new Trump administration is expected to relax regulations on the Energy Industry, which will also benefit the sector.
For example, it is expected that the government will lift restrictions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses and pipeline projects. "Regulation is an additional cost," said Street Institute senior fellow Philip Rossetti. "If you expect regulatory reduction, then you might expect more profitability."
Oklahoma-based gas processing and transportation company Williams Companies (WMB.US) and Oil & Gas Midstream operator Oneok (OKE.US) have both risen over 40% this year so far.
Meanwhile, according to government data, due to continued construction of storage capacity in Europe during the Ukraine conflict to reduce reliance on Russia, USA liquefied natural gas exports are expected to grow by 15% next year.
S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the price at the main Futures contract delivery point, Henry Hub, will average over $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by 2025, after averaging below $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for two years.
The organization’s 2025 Energy Outlook report states: "Export growth will put tremendous pressure on the domestic Henry Hub Natural Gas market."
However, some Wall Street Analysts believe that the overall impact of changes in export policy and delays in liquefied natural gas supply projects may slow price increases. Goldman Sachs analysts now expect Henry Hub Natural Gas prices to reach $4 per million British thermal units by 2026, instead of the previously expected fourth quarter of 2025.