I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 16th.

・The Nikkei Average rebounded, and the price increase was heavy even before buying

・Use small amounts of dollars and yen, buy dollars and sell yen

・Advantage ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Chugai Pharmaceutical ＜4519＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average rebounded, and the price increase was heavy even before buying

The Nikkei Average rebounded. The front market transaction was closed at 39533.55 yen (estimated volume 0.8 billion12.46 million shares), which rose 63.11 yen.

The Dow average in the US market fell by 86.06 dollars to 43828.06 dollars last weekend, and the NASDAQ closed at 19926.72 points, which was 23.88 points higher. I like the financial results of major companies. However, the Dow was pushed down by sales and profit-making sales in response to speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) would slow down, and it remained soft throughout the day. High interest rates weighed heavily on the NASDAQ, but the rise in Semiconductor Broadcom (AVGO) boosted the index and remained steady throughout the day.

Today's Nikkei Average started with a rebound of 39551.22 yen, 80.78 yen higher than the previous weekend, against the US stock market, which ended on the sidelines. Buying took a slight lead from the trend towards Chicago futures, but after getting close, there was only a slight movement. The increase in semiconductor-related matters widened due to prices where buyers were gathering in response to the rise in US semiconductor stocks the previous weekend. Also, according to machine order statistics for October, the order value (seasonally adjusted) for “private demand excluding ships and electricity” increased 2.1% from the previous month, and a portion of machine-related stocks also rose due to a sense of security about capital investment.

Individually, semiconductor-related stocks such as DISCO ＜6146＞, Toelec ＜8035＞, and Advante ＜6857＞, and financial stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ ＜8306＞ and Sumitomo Mitsui ＜8316＞ remained steady. Also, Fujikura ＜5803＞, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ＜7011＞, SoftBank Group ＜9984＞, PanaHD ＜6752＞, and Ceres ＜3696＞ have risen. In addition, Tanseisha ＜9743＞, which revised earnings and dividend forecasts upward, skyrocketed, and Kobe Bussan ＜3038＞, which had an upward revision of mid-term target values due to an improvement in the previous fiscal year results, etc., ranked high in the price increase rate.

Meanwhile, Kawasaki Heavy Industries ＜7012＞, Fast Lite ＜9983＞, Sony Group ＜6758＞, Recruit HD ＜6098＞, Tokio Marine ＜8766＞, KEYENCE ＜6861＞, Rakuten Group ＜4755＞, etc. have declined. Link-U Group ＜4446＞, which saw flat first-quarter earnings and off-site sales as sales material, and Yahman ＜6630＞, where the 2-digit operating profit decline trend continued in the August/10 fiscal year, plummeted. In addition, Advance Create ＜8798＞, Sumida Corporation ＜6817＞, ASKUL ＜2678＞, etc. were at the top of the price drop rate.

By industry, while textile products, rubber products, metal products, etc. rose, petroleum and coal products, land transportation, air transport, etc. declined.

The Nikkei Stock Average late-stage lacks enough material to be actively bought up, and it seems that the upward trend will continue. This week, the FOMC will be held on 17-18, and monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan will be held on 18-19, respectively. While there are many voices predicting a 0.25% interest rate cut in the FOMC, the possibility of a 0.25% interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan meeting is 5 in 5 minutes. From late November to early December, interest rate hikes were strongly observed at the December meeting, and increases in financial stocks such as banks and insurance were slightly conspicuous, but there is a slight tone down at the moment, such as observation reports that the December interest rate hike has been postponed. After passing the Japan-US central bank meeting, which is the last event of the year, since major SQ is over, market participants will enter Christmas vacation one after another, and trading fees in the Prime Market will decrease. As long as there are no surprise materials, it seems that the trend of around 0.04 million yen will continue within the year.

■Use small amounts of dollars and yen, buy dollars and sell yen

The dollar and yen became small in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 16th, and the upper price increased from 153 yen 32 yen to 153 yen 97 yen. The yield on 10-year US bonds remained steady, strengthening the dollar buying position. Meanwhile, expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year have receded, and yen sales have taken precedence and boosted major currencies.

The trading range up to this point is the dollar and yen from 153 yen 32 yen to 153 yen 97 sen, the euro and yen from 161 yen 07 yen to 161 yen 98 sen, and the euro dollar from 1.0486 dollars to 1.0522 dollars.

■Backstage check stocks

・10 brands such as Fit Easy ＜212A＞ and Heartseed＜219A＞ have high stops

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Advantage ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price increases, and Chugai Pharmaceutical ＜4519＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Japan/October machinery orders (private demand excluding ships and electricity): +2.1% compared to the previous month (forecast: +1.0%, September: -0.7%)

・Mid-November industrial production: +5.4% year-on-year (forecast: +5.4%, October: +5.3%)

・Mid-November retail sales: +3.0% year-on-year (forecast: +5.0%, October: +4.8%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Bank of France Governor Bill Lois de Gallo

“Further interest rate cuts will be made multiple times next year”

“There is no particular objection to financial market predictions”

＜Domestic＞

Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

Nothing in particular