花旗此前发布研报称，自9月政策发布以来，监管机构致力于建立一个“慢牛市场”，以帮助提振内需，并推动家庭资产向股票重新分配。虽然市场对政策中枢反应正面，但该行认为目前中国券商股价可能过高。自9月下旬以来，H股和A股传统券商平均升幅分别约70%和40%。该行指，由于2024年对牛市状况的盈利敏感度较2015年为低，该行敏感度分析显示券商无法提供足够的净资产收益率升幅，以证明目前的市账率倍数在重新评级后是合理水平。China-Affiliated Brokerage stocks continued to decline in the afternoon. As of the time of this report, Guolian (01456) fell 3.48% to 4.71 Hong Kong dollars; China Merchants (06099) fell 3.33% to 15.7 Hong Kong dollars; CITIC SEC (06030) fell 2.48% to 21.65 Hong Kong dollars; CSC (06066) fell 1.92% to 10.2 Hong Kong dollars.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, China-Affiliated Brokerage stocks continued to decline in the afternoon. As of the time of this report, Guolian (01456) fell 3.48% to 4.71 Hong Kong dollars; China Merchants (06099) fell 3.33% to 15.7 Hong Kong dollars; CITIC SEC (06030) fell 2.48% to 21.65 Hong Kong dollars; CSC (06066) fell 1.92% to 10.2 Hong Kong dollars.
China Great Wall pointed out today that the market is affected by fluctuations in the ten-year treasury yield, changes in expectations for interest rate cuts in the USA, policy statements from economic meetings, and fluctuations in northbound capital, resulting in increased market volatility. The brokerage sector experienced some fluctuations and adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping below 3,400 points on Friday. Domestic and international events will face important intertwining points, and the market is entering a critical observation period.
Citibank previously published a research report stating that since the release of policies in September, regulatory agencies have been working to establish a "slow bull market" to help boost domestic demand and drive family assets to be reallocated towards stocks. Although the market has reacted positively to the central policy, the bank believes that the current prices of Chinese brokerage stocks may be too high. Since late September, the average increase in H-shares and A-shares of traditional brokerages has been about 70% and 40% respectively. The bank pointed out that due to the lower sensitivity of profits to a bull market situation in 2024 compared to 2015, their sensitivity analysis shows that brokerages cannot provide sufficient increases in return on net assets to justify the current price-to-book ratio after re-evaluation.
