该行表示，公司提高今年净新增门店指引，从900-1100家提升至1200家，其中海外开店650-700家、国内开店350-400家，TOPTOY开店100家。公司全年利润率指引16-16.5%，其中Q4利润率全年最高。海外今年开店情况好，为明年营收增长奠定基础，给予明年增长加速指引。考虑到公司25-26年海外直营市场维持高增和利润率提升，该行预测名创优品2024-2026年净利润为27.34亿/37.45亿/48.20亿（前值为28.09亿/34.93亿/44.18亿），对应估值为21.9X/16X/12.4X，参考可比公司估值，给予公司25年20-22倍PE，对应目标价64-70.4港元，上调至“强推”评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to Huachuang Securities Research, Mingchuang Premium (09896)'s 24Q3 revenue increased 19.3% year over year to 4.52 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) was 0.69 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year, all in line with expectations.
According to the bank, domestic revenue in 24Q3 was 2.71 billion yuan, +8.7% year over year. Among them, MINISO brand revenue increased 5.7% year on year to 2.44 billion yuan, and TOPTOY brand revenue increased 50.4% year on year to 0.27 billion yuan. In 24Q1-Q3, there was a net increase of 324 domestic stores to 4,250 stores. The rate of opening was in line with expectations. The single-digit decline in the number of same-stores, the customer unit price was +0.2%, and the decline in domestic consumer demand made passenger flow pressure evident. However, the company's same-store performance was superior to other offline retail sales. Among them, the recovery of same-store stores in high-tier cities was superior to that of lower-tier cities, mainly due to the large contribution of IP products in high-tier cities, and the rapid increase in customer unit prices.
According to the bank, the company's overseas revenue in 24Q3 was 1.81 billion yuan, +39.8% year on year, and overseas business revenue accounted for +5.9pp to 40.0% of the company's total revenue year on year. Overseas revenue increased 41% from 24Q1-Q3. The company's overseas same-store growth in the first three quarters was high by a single digit. Compared with the 16% overseas same-store growth rate in the first half of the year, the global popularity of the popular IP Barbie in the same period last year led to a high growth base in the third quarter of this year. In 2024Q1-3, the total number of Mingchuang Premium stores worldwide increased net of 773 to 7,186, and a net increase of 449 to 2,936 overseas, including 302 new direct sales and 147 new agency markets. The direct market contributed more than 61% to the net increase in stores, mainly from the US and Indonesian markets.
The bank said that the company raised its net new store guidelines this year from 900-1100 to 1,200, including 650-700 overseas stores, 350-400 domestic stores, and 100 TOPTOY stores. The company's annual profit margin is 16-16.5%, of which Q4 profit margin is the highest for the whole year. Overseas stores opened well this year, laying the foundation for next year's revenue growth and providing guidance for accelerating growth next year. Considering that the company's overseas direct sales market maintained high growth and profit margin growth in 25-26, the bank predicts Mingchuang Premium's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 2.734 billion/3.745 billion/4.82 billion (previous value was 2.809 billion/3.493 billion/4.418 billion), and the corresponding valuation is 21.9X/16X/12.4X. Refer to comparable company valuations and give the company 20-22 times PE in 25 years, corresponding target price 64 -HK$70.4, upgraded to “Strong” rating.
