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Earnings Are Growing at Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE:ALEX) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 16 18:21

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (NYSE:ALEX) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 19% in three years, versus a market return of about 29%.

With the stock having lost 4.2% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, Alexander & Baldwin actually managed to grow EPS by 25% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 8.3% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

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NYSE:ALEX Earnings and Revenue Growth December 16th 2024

We know that Alexander & Baldwin has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Alexander & Baldwin, it has a TSR of -7.4% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Alexander & Baldwin provided a TSR of 7.0% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 2% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Alexander & Baldwin has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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