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Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says "Nvidia GB300/B300 DrMOS Testing Update: Severe Thermal Issues With AOS, MPS Order Trends May Be Better-Than-Feared" - Medium

Benzinga ·  Dec 16 23:28

Event:
The DrMOS chips currently being tested for the GB300/B300 system are AOS's 5x5 and MPS's 5x6. My latest supply chain survey indicates that AOS's chips were experiencing severe thermal issues.

Analysis:
1. Nvidia prioritized testing AOS's 5x5 DrMOS for two reasons: 1) To strengthen its bargaining power against MPS to lower costs, and 2) AOS has more excellent expertise in the design and production of 5x5 DrMOS.
2. The chip itself may not solely cause the thermal issue but could also result from insufficient optimization in other designs, such as system thermal management.
3. If the issue remains unresolved, Nvidia may take proactive measures to avoid delays in GB300/B300 mass production. These could include 1) Engaging alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers, such as requesting test samples from MPS, and 2) Accelerating testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS. Such actions could dampen the market's highly optimistic outlook on AOS's future orders in the short term.
4. 5x6 DrMOS comes with higher costs but offers better thermal performance. If the thermal issue with 5x5 DrMOS persists, the likelihood of Nvidia switching to 5x6 DrMOS will increase, potentially benefiting MPS, which has a technology advantage in the 5x6 design.

Conclusion:
With GB300/B300 still some time away from mass production, This event doesn't mean that AOS can't eventually benefit from GB300/B300. However, to avoid repeating delays seen with GB200/B200, Nvidia's efforts to seek alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers or to accelerate testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS could impact the market's high expectations for AOS's orders in the near term.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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