The Wall Street darling has changed! The divergence between Broadcom and NVIDIA has intensified, with Broadcom soaring over 11% while NVIDIA has declined.

wallstreetcn · Dec 16 16:35

尽管缺少英伟达的助力，周一当日纳斯达克综合指数仍创下历史新高。周一，其它一些半导体股表现也不俗。美光科技在即将公布季度财报前涨超5%、盘中一度大涨超8%。Marvell科技上涨3.3%，泛林半导体（Lam Research）涨超2%。

在上周五市值突破1万亿美元并创下24%的单日最大涨幅后，博通周一又大涨超11%，收于250美元，盘中创下251.88美元的历史新高，受华尔街上调目标价的推动。

相比之下，周一英伟达股价下跌，盘中跌近3%、收跌近1.7%，收于132美元。12月以来，英伟达股价累计下跌了约4.5%，距离上个月创下的148.88美元收盘高点已下跌超11%，正式进入回调区间。一般认为，股价从历史收盘高点下跌10%或更多即构成回调。

纵观今年以来的表现，英伟达年内股价累计上涨约165%，博通股价今年已累计上涨约120%，二者表现均远超美股大盘，纳斯达克指数今年上涨了约34%。

本轮博通股价暴涨，源于该公司周四晚间发布的超预期的财报及乐观的第一季度展望。受益于生成式人工智能（AI）热潮，博通全年AI相关收入同比飙升220%，达到122亿美元。

博通将其定制AI加速器称为XPU，与英伟达销售的GPU有所不同。博通表示，本季度向三家超大规模客户交付的XPU出货量翻倍。虽然博通公司未公开客户名单，但分析师认为这三家公司是Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet以及TikTok母公司字节跳动。

华尔街见闻分析指出，从英伟达到博通，AI行业“范式大转变”。随着AI大模型从预训练阶段转向逻辑推理阶段，以ASIC为代表的专用芯片可能将逐步取代以GPU为代表的通用芯片，成为各大AI公司的“新宠”。分析称，如果博通CEO对ASIC市场的预测准确，未来三年博通ASIC相关的AI业务有望实现每年翻倍增长。

以下为华尔街分析师的最新观点：

高盛推荐买入博通股票，并将12个月目标价从190美元上调至240美元，理由是定制芯片产品的新大客户增加，以及管理层在去年完成对VMware 610亿美元收购后的出色执行力。“我们对公司未来的收入和盈利增长前景更有信心。”
巴克莱将博通的目标价从200美元上调至205美元。
Truist将博通的目标价从245美元上调至260美元。构建基础设施需要英伟达及其芯片，但市场也在表达其他企业同样能从中受益的观点。今年已经多次看到七姐妹内部的轮动。
Bokeh Capital Partners：博通公司上周的表态可能促使趋势投资者开始关注该公司，寻找增长更快的标的。趋势投资推动了该股的表现，我认为短期内不会让它失势，但趋势投资的特性就是总会寻找表现更佳的标的。

媒体分析称，英伟达近期表现不佳，可能表明在经历了又一个辉煌年度后，华尔街正在获利了结。对于英伟达来说，存在一些隐忧。尽管市场整体屡创新高，但英伟达表现落后。如果这种趋势持续下去，可能是一个警示信号。有业内人士指出，125至130美元之间是英伟达股价和市场整体的关键测试区间。

尽管缺少英伟达的助力，周一当日纳斯达克综合指数仍创下历史新高。

周一，其它一些半导体股表现也不俗。美光科技在即将公布季度财报前涨超5%、盘中一度大涨超8%。Marvell科技上涨3.3%，泛林半导体（Lam Research）涨超2%。

Despite the lack of support from NVIDIA, the Nasdaq Composite Index still reached a historic high on Monday. On the same day, other semiconductor stocks also performed well. Micron Technology rose over 5% before the upcoming quarterly Earnings Reports, and at one point surged over 8% during intraday trading. Marvell Technology increased by 3.3%, and Lam Research rose by more than 2%.

After surpassing a market cap of 1 trillion dollars and achieving a maximum single-day gain of 24% last Friday, Broadcom surged over 11% on Monday, closing at 250 dollars, with an intraday high of 251.88 dollars, driven by Wall Street's increase in target price.

In contrast, NVIDIA's stock price fell on Monday, dropping nearly 3% during the day and closing down nearly 1.7% at 132 dollars. Since December, NVIDIA's stock price has fallen by about 4.5%, having decreased over 11% from the closing high of 148.88 dollars reached last month, officially entering the correction range. It is generally believed that a decline of 10% or more from a historical closing high constitutes a correction.

Looking at the performance this year, NVIDIA's stock price has risen approximately 165% year-to-date, and Broadcom's stock price has increased about 120% this year, both of which significantly outperformed the US Large Cap market, with the Nasdaq Index rising about 34% this year.

The recent surge in Broadcom's stock price is attributed to the company's earnings report released last Thursday evening, which exceeded expectations, along with an optimistic outlook for the first quarter. Benefiting from the boom in generative AI, Broadcom's AI-related revenue for the year skyrocketed by 220% year-on-year, reaching 12.2 billion dollars.

Broadcom refers to its custom AI accelerator as XPU, which is different from the GPUs sold by NVIDIA. Broadcom stated that the XPU shipments delivered to three massive customers doubled this quarter. Although Broadcom has not disclosed the customer names, analysts believe these three companies are Meta, Google's parent company Alphabet, and TikTok's parent company ByteDance.

An analysis from Wall Street pointed out that there is a 'paradigm shift' in the AI industry from NVIDIA to Broadcom. As AI large models transition from the pre-training phase to the logical reasoning phase, dedicated chips represented by ASICs may gradually replace general-purpose chips represented by GPUs, becoming the 'new favorites' of major AI companies. Analysts stated that if Broadcom's CEO's predictions for the ASIC market are accurate, Broadcom's ASIC-related AI business is expected to achieve doubling growth every year over the next three years.

The following are the latest views of Wall Street analysts:

Goldman Sachs recommended buying Broadcom Stocks and raised the 12-month Target Price from $190 to $240, citing an increase in new major customers for custom chip products, as well as the management's excellent execution following last year's $61 billion acquisition of VMware. "We are more confident in the company's future revenue and profit growth prospects."
Barclays raised the Target Price for Broadcom from $200 to $205.
Truist raised the Target Price for Broadcom from $245 to $260. Building infrastructure requires NVIDIA and its chips, but the market is also expressing that Other companies can benefit similarly. There has been multiple rotations within the seven sisters this year.
Bokeh Capital Partners: Broadcom's statement last week may prompt trend investors to start paying attention to the company, in search of faster-growing symbols. Trend investment has driven the performance of this stock, and I don't believe it will lose momentum in the short term, but the nature of trend investment is that it will always seek better-performing symbols.

Media analysts indicate that NVIDIA's recent poor performance may suggest that Wall Street is taking profits after another stellar year. There are some concerns for NVIDIA. Although the overall market is reaching new highs, NVIDIA is underperforming. If this trend continues, it could be a warning sign. Industry insiders point out that the range between $125 and $130 is a key testing zone for NVIDIA's stock price and the overall market.

Despite the lack of support from NVIDIA, the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historic high on Monday.

On Monday, several Other semiconductor stocks also performed well. Micron Technology rose over 5% before the upcoming quarterly Earnings Reports, reaching a peak increase of over 8% during intraday trading. Marvell Technology increased by 3.3%, and Lam Research rose by over 2%.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

华尔街宠儿变了！博通、英伟达分化加剧，博通大涨超11%，英伟达下跌

The Wall Street darling has changed! The divergence between Broadcom and NVIDIA has intensified, with Broadcom soaring over 11% while NVIDIA has declined.

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