Is Jiujiang Defu Technology (SZSE:301511) A Risky Investment?
Is Jiujiang Defu Technology (SZSE:301511) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Jiujiang Defu Technology Co., Limited (SZSE:301511) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
禾倫·巴菲特曾說:『波動性遠非風險的同義詞。』當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡查看其債務使用情況,因爲債務過重可能導致滅頂之災。重要的是,九江德福科技有限公司(深交所:301511)確實有債務。但股東應該擔心其債務使用情況嗎?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時會變得危險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
當企業無法輕鬆履行債務或其他負債時,債務和其他負債便會變得風險重重,這可能通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本來實現。最終,如果公司無法履行其法律義務來償還債務,股東可能會一無所獲。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東權益,因爲貸款人迫使他們以低價籌集資金。當然,債務的好處在於,尤其是在公司能以高收益率再投資的情況下,它通常代表了廉價資本,特別是當它替代了稀釋時。當我們審查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平的結合。
How Much Debt Does Jiujiang Defu Technology Carry?
九江德福科技揹負了多少債務?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Jiujiang Defu Technology had debt of CN¥8.33b, up from CN¥5.67b in one year. However, it also had CN¥4.32b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥4.02b.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊以獲取更詳細的信息,顯示截至2024年9月,九江德福科技的債務爲CN¥83.3億,較一年前的CN¥56.7億有所上升。然而,它也有CN¥43.2億的現金,因此其淨債務爲CN¥40.2億。
How Strong Is Jiujiang Defu Technology's Balance Sheet?
九江德富科技的資產負債表有多強?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Jiujiang Defu Technology had liabilities of CN¥9.96b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.46b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥4.32b and CN¥3.44b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥3.67b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
仔細查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到九江德富科技在未來12個月內的負債爲99.6億元,以及在此之後的負債爲14.6億元。另一方面,它有現金43.2億元,以及在一年內到期的應收款項34.4億元。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收款的總和多出36.7億元。
Jiujiang Defu Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥8.87b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Jiujiang Defu Technology will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
九江德富科技的市值爲88.7億元,因此如果需要,它很可能能夠籌集現金來改善其資產負債表。然而,仍然值得仔細查看其償還債務的能力。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個明顯的起點。但是,您不能完全孤立地看待債務,因爲九江德富科技將需要營業收入來服務於該債務。因此,如果您渴望了解其營業收入,查看其長期營業收入趨勢的圖表可能是值得的。
In the last year Jiujiang Defu Technology wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 4.9%, to CN¥6.9b. We usually like to see faster growth from unprofitable companies, but each to their own.
在過去一年中,九江德富科技的EBIT水平未盈利,但營業收入增長了4.9%,達到了69億元。我們通常希望看到未盈利公司更快的增長,但每個人的標準不同。
Caveat Emptor
買者自負盈虧
Importantly, Jiujiang Defu Technology had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost CN¥161m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through CN¥567m of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Jiujiang Defu Technology is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...
重要的是,九江德富科技在過去一年中出現了息稅前利潤(EBIT)虧損。實際上,它在EBIT水平上虧損了16100萬元。當我們查看這一點並回顧其資產負債表上的負債,相對於現金而言,公司有任何債務似乎是不明智的。坦率地說,我們認爲該資產負債表遠未適合,但隨着時間的推移可以改善。然而,它在過去一年中耗盡了56700萬元的現金,這並不起任何幫助。因此,可以說我們認爲這隻股票非常危險。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是要關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,九江德富科技在我們的投資分析中顯示出3個警告信號,其中2個是重要的……
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。
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