While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (HKG:688) share price up 17% in a single quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. After all, the share price is down 57% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
After losing 10% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Looking back five years, both China Overseas Land & Investment's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 10% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 16% per year, over the period. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 5.83.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that China Overseas Land & Investment has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Overseas Land & Investment the TSR over the last 5 years was -44%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
China Overseas Land & Investment shareholders gained a total return of 1.2% during the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 8% endured over half a decade. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - China Overseas Land & Investment has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.