高盛认为，由于中国卡车电气化加速，降低进入壁垒，成本曲线趋于平缓，从而引发新的竞争，至于中国重卡行业利润率的结构性恶化并未反映出来。高盛将潍柴H股目标价定于14.6港元，首予“买入”评级;同时将重汽H股目标价定于17.3港元，给予“沽售”评级。Goldman Sachs expects truck demand to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2025; however, it is expected to drop by 10% year-on-year in 2024.
According to the Zhithong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs released a research report stating a cautiously optimistic outlook on the domestic truck cycle in China, predicting a 7% year-on-year increase in truck demand in 2025; however, a 10% drop year-on-year is expected in 2024.
Goldman Sachs expects a cyclical turning point to occur in mid-next year or in the second half of next year. If the scope of the truck replacement policy is extended or potentially expanded, there may be further upside potential. Weichai Power (02338) is the preferred stock for the bank to respond to the cyclical turning point and provides a positively skewed risk-return profile. It is expected that Weichai, which has underperformed compared to SINOTRUK (03808) since mid-August, will see this situation reversed in the future.
Goldman Sachs believes that due to the accelerated electrification of trucks in China, the barriers to entry are lowering, and the cost curve is becoming flatter, thus prompting new competition. The structural deterioration in the profitability of the Chinese heavy truck industry has not yet been reflected. Goldman Sachs sets the Target Price for Weichai H Shares at 14.6 HKD and initiates a "Buy" rating; meanwhile, the Target Price for SINOTRUK H Shares is set at 17.3 HKD, with a "Sell" rating.
