Jinwu Finance News | Zhao Yin International stated that Fuel Cell Energy is mainly applied in the Commercial Vehicle sector in China, especially heavy trucks. The bank believes that the explosion of the Fuel Cell Industry may also first appear in the heavy truck sector. According to the bank's comparison of the whole life cycle costs of different power forms of heavy trucks, by 2026, the overall ownership cost of Fuel Cell heavy trucks will be on par with diesel heavy trucks within three years, and this cost competitiveness may signal a turning point in the industry. The core to achieving this investment return cycle is the price of hydrogen and the supporting infrastructure. In the mid-to-long term dimension of 5-10 years, the bank predicts that the unit price of Fuel Cell systems has a nearly 75% cost reduction space, and their endurance and refueling efficiency may still lead pure electric heavy trucks, which also makes large-scale replacement of diesel heavy trucks by Fuel Cell heavy trucks possible.

The bank pointed out that Fuel Cell Energy still needs government support and guidance in the short term, and reducing hydrogen refueling costs is one of the keys to whether the industry can usher in a turning point in 2026-2027. The hydrogen price mainly consists of three parts: hydrogen production, hydrogen transportation, and hydrogen refueling station operation, among which there is significant cost reduction space for hydrogen transportation. The bank believes that in the short term, for regions where by-product hydrogen is not well-developed, government subsidies are still needed to make the hydrogen price below 25 yuan/kg, while the long-term hydrogen price depends on the cost reduction space of electrolysis hydrogen production equipment. The bank believes that the long-term hydrogen price may still be achievable at 25 yuan/kg without subsidies. In addition, technological advancements and economies of scale will significantly lower the prices of Fuel Cell Energy. The purchase cost of Fuel Cell heavy trucks still plays a decisive role in their medium-to-long-term competitiveness. The bank estimates that, without considering unpredictable technological breakthroughs (such as the corrosion resistance of metal bipolar plate coatings), the long-term cost of Fuel Cells still has a nearly 75% cost reduction space.

In summary, Fuel Cell heavy trucks possess cost competitiveness, and supporting infrastructure is an essential condition. Unlike the diversification of Consumer preferences for Passenger Vehicles, cost is the most important consideration in the Commercial Vehicle industry. Therefore, once a certain power form of Commercial Vehicles demonstrates a clear cost advantage over other power forms, its market share may occupy a mainstream position in a relatively short time. Due to the diversity of scenarios in the heavy truck market and the complexity of the assumptions involved in the bank's analysis, it is currently difficult to determine the long-term stable state of the heavy truck market's power form pattern. However, considering that the market share of Fuel Cell heavy trucks in China in 2023 is only 0.3%, and long-distance transportation accounts for about half of the heavy truck demand, the bank can anticipate the potential for exponential growth of Fuel Cell heavy trucks.