Jin Wu Financial News | Shen Wan Hongyuan said that China's real estate has experienced deep adjustments in the past 3 years, and the effects of the relaxation policy were limited. The bank believes that the core problem is not insufficient demand, but rather the weakening of residents' balance sheets. The continuous statements of “stopping the decline and stabilizing the stock market” in September and “stabilizing the property market and stock market” in December have clarified policy ideas to repair residents' balance sheets. It is expected that more active and promising policies will be introduced in the future, and the industry is expected to be built. Considering that demand is supported in the medium term but supply is constrained in the short term, the bank expects that next year's total volume will still be weak, but the structure is highly elastic. Among them, Tier 1 and 2 cities are expected to reverse supply and demand and show strong elasticity. High-quality housing enterprises are expected to replicate the logic of supply-side coal reform and usher in both quantitative and qualitative increases.
The bank maintains a “optimistic” rating for real estate and property management, recommending: 1) Product strength real estate companies: Binjiang Group, China Resources Land (01109), Poly Development, China Overseas Development (00688), China Merchants Shekou, C&D International (01908), focus on Greentown China (03900); 2) undervalued repair housing enterprises: Xincheng Holdings, C&D Co., Ltd., Yuexiu Real Estate (00123), Longhu Group (00960), focus on Jindi Group, Xincheng Development (01030), Poly Real Estate (01030), Poly Real Estate (00119); 3) Housing enterprises benefiting from storage and urban reform: Yuexiu Real Estate and Huafa Co., Ltd. , Focus on City Investment Holdings and Urban Construction Development; 4) Second-hand Real Estate Agents: Follow Shell (02423), I Love My Family; 5) Property Management: China Resources Vientiane (01209), Investment Savings, CNOOC Properties (02669), Greentown Services (02869), Poly Property (06049), Focus on Xincheng Yue Service (01755).
