I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the transaction before the 18th.

■Short-term trading is the center while waiting for FOMC results

■Estelle reduces operating loss deficit in 2Q ▲0.317 billion yen

■Notable materials on the front floor: Toyota discontinues production of Lexus “UX”, concentrates on next-generation EVs

■Short-term trading is the center while waiting for FOMC results

The Japanese stock market on the 18th is likely to have such a strong sense of market development. On the 17th, the NY Dow depreciated by 267 dollars and the NASDAQ depreciated by 64 points in the US market. November retail sales announced in the morning exceeded market expectations, and although there is no change in the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it led to observations that the pace of interest rate cuts in '25 will moderate. While waiting for FOMC results, sales with adjusted holdings became dominant. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures (March) settlement value is 39255 yen, 145 yen lower than Osaka. The yen exchange rate is hovering at 153 yen 40 yen per dollar.

The Nikkei Stock Average is likely to start slightly ahead of sales in the form of falling in line with Chicago futures. As the NY Dow continues to decline for 9 business days in the US, it would be easy to refrain from aggressive trading. However, since the NASDAQ hit a high the day before, it is easy to take profit, and while economy-sensitive stocks are being sold, a portion of high-tech stocks is being bought, and the rebalancing movement continues. The decline in Advantest ＜6857＞ was conspicuous yesterday, but since it was viewed as an exchange sale to acquire KIOXIA HOLDINGS ＜285A＞, which will be listed today, it seems that it will lead to a sense of security if it shows a reluctant movement to decline from the first round of sales.

Nikkei 225 futures were sold up to 39210 yen at one point during the night session, falling below the +1σ of the Bollinger Band, which was perceived as a support line. In the short term, sales gimmicks are likely to enter, and it seems likely that there will be situations where it approaches the milestone of 39,000 yen. However, while waiting for FOMC results, it is thought that it will only be a short-term trade, and I would like to respond with a stance of waiting for the push. Although US retail sales exceeded expectations, there are aspects where purchases moved ahead of time due to wary of the impact of tariffs due to the next Trump administration. Therefore, interest rate cuts in the United States are deep-seated, and there is awareness that the US will run out of gas after passing the FOMC.

It seems that interest will be drawn to KIOXIA HOLDINGS as a search, but if it seems to weaken after the initial price is formed, funds will be directed to other semiconductor stocks, etc. In addition, it seems that trading aimed at short-term price ranges with stocks with individual materials or material stocks with themes will take center stage.

■Estelle reduces operating loss deficit in 2Q ▲0.317 billion yen

As for the second quarter results for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 announced by Estelle ＜7872＞, sales were 14.9 billion 33 million yen, down 0.8% from the same period last year, and operating profit and loss were in deficit of 0.3 billion 17 million yen (0.3 billion 65 million yen deficit in the same period last year). Regarding jewellery, efforts to strengthen communication with customers, such as the 70th anniversary campaign, and the strengthening of human resource development have been promoted, but the impact on the jewellery segment remained limited. With regard to eyeglasses, the wholesale business at overseas subsidiaries grew as a result of reviewing storefront launches, etc., and strengthening human resource development.

■Notable materials from the front

・Long-term US interest rates have declined

・Active share buybacks

・Request for improvement of corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange

・Toyota's own ＜7203＞ Lexus “UX” production ends, concentrating on next-generation EVs

・Honda ＜7267＞ doubles HV in 30 years, global sales to 1.3 million units per year

・Sumitomo Pharma ＜4506＞ Sumitomo Chemical and a new regenerative and cell medicine company, 350 billion yen scale in the latter half of the 30s

・Tokyo Gas ＜9531＞ agreed with McDonald's to supply renewable energy to 75 stores in Kanto

・Japan ESCON ＜8892＞ Mitsubishi Chemical G sells real estate business, transfer amount 20.3 billion yen

・Sumitomo Corporation ＜8053＞ acquires Indonesian company, large pump rental for mining

・Denso ＜6902＞ strengthens cooperation with advanced driving support, stable supply of semiconductors with US companies

・SoftBank G＜9984＞ Mr. Son announces 15 trillion yen investment in the US and meets with the next US President Trump

・Honda ＜7267＞ Honda's next-generation HV that pursues “uniqueness” and can be enjoyed with all five senses

・Tokai Rika ＜6995＞ supports the practical application of lithium batteries with a capacity of 2 times, goes to Meidai Shinko

・Isuzu's own ＜7202＞ UD Trucks and Kenyan sales corporation were unified, and a new base was established in southern Mombasa

・Ishihara Sangyo (4028) introduced a wire discharge machine, compatible with large-scale, ultra-high precision processing

・Seibu Electric ＜6144＞'s new precision plant is in operation, production capacity increased 1.5 times

・Okuma ＜6103＞Processing consultation center in Kumamoto develops semiconductor demand 1

・JFE ＜5411＞JFE Engineering completes CO2 onshore equipment, and integrates liquefaction, storage, and cargo handling

・NTT ＜9432＞NTT Docomo demonstrates open RAN offensive in Peru and Southeast Asia

・Strengthen disaster response capabilities of KDDI ＜9433＞ base stations, monitor battery levels, etc.

・Lasertech ＜6920＞ begins accepting orders for EUV exposure original evaluation equipment, detects minute phase defects

・ENEOS ＜5020＞Artificial oil from CO2, liquid yield approx. 80%

・Toray ＜3402＞ CO2 separation membranes were mass-produced in fiscal year 26, and pilot equipment was introduced in Shiga

・Plated on an Achilles ＜5142＞ semiconductor glass substrate, highly adhesive with polypyrrole

・Oji HD ＜3861＞ photoresist development promotion, utilization of wood-derived materials

・Toyobo ＜3101＞Toyobo MC adopts “hollow fiber membrane” in China and used in lithium recovery processes

☆ Front office event schedule

＜Domestic＞

・Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (until 19th)

・ 08:50 November trade balance (forecast: -687.9 billion yen, October: -462.1 billion yen)

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular