这一利差接近历史性里程碑，显示了两个债券市场之间的分歧之大。由于英国经济持续承受价格压力，英债今年表现落后于其他国家政府债券，而德国国债则因欧洲央行大范围宽松政策的前景而上涨。The yield premium of United Kingdom government bonds relative to German government bonds has risen to its highest level in decades, as traders become increasingly skeptical about the Bank of England's further easing policies next year.
The difference in yields between the United Kingdom and Germany's 10-year bonds has widened to 229 basis points, the largest closing gap since the early weeks following German reunification in 1990, exceeding levels reached during the UK bond crisis two years ago.
Data released on Tuesday showed that wage growth in the United Kingdom exceeded expectations, prompting traders to quickly reduce bets on further rate cuts by the Bank of England. The MMF market is currently fully pricing in the possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts by 2025, with the likelihood of a third cut estimated at around 20%, down from 90% before the report was released.
This spread is close to a historic milestone, reflecting the significant divergence between the two bond markets. Due to ongoing price pressures on the United Kingdom's economy, UK bonds have underperformed government bonds from other countries this year, while German government bonds have risen due to expectations of large-scale easing by the European Central Bank.
"The market is very fearful of the wage data," said Pooja Kumra, senior strategy at The Toronto-Dominion Bank for the United Kingdom and Europe. "The challenges faced by the Bank of England are entirely different from those of other central banks."
Attention is currently turning to Wednesday's UK inflation data. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the overall year-on-year inflation rate in November to rise from 2.3% to 2.6%.
The Bank of England will hold its next policy meeting on Thursday, where it is likely to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.75%. The MMF market indicates a rate cut of about 55 basis points by the end of 2025, while Eurozone rates are expected to be cut by nearly 120 basis points.
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