综合而言，加沙停火协议或将达成，市场预计美联储12月降息25个基点，明年1月暂停降息，短期市场情绪或正在转变。On December 17, the COMEX Gold price fell by 0.24% to $2,663.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold main contract dropped by 0.30% to 618.94 yuan per gram.
In terms of geopolitics, there are reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading to Cairo for ceasefire talks regarding Gaza, with a ceasefire agreement expected to be signed in the coming days.
Regarding interest rate cuts, the latest CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data shows a 4.6% probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December, and a 95.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut; the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January next year is 3.8%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 79.9% and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 16.3%.
Overall, it is expected that the Gaza ceasefire agreement may be reached, and the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, pause rate cuts in January next year, indicating a potential shift in short-term market sentiment.
Data source: Wind, Cnstock data, and Everbright Futures Research Institute.
Written by: Wu Aihua
Professional qualification: F3074355
Investment advisory qualification: Z0017696
Disclaimer: The views, suggestions, and conclusions in this article are for reference only. The sources of the materials in the report are public information, and the relevant analyses and suggestions do not constitute the basis for investment operations of the mentioned varieties. Any investment decisions made based on this are not related to the company and the author.
