该行还指出，随着国内和海外市场计划新增产能的释放，氧化铝精炼企业的利润转移以及国内和海外市场计划新增产能的产量，预计2025年的盈利将稳健。Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) is expected to meet the preliminary net income for the full year of 2024, maintaining a "Shareholding" rating with a Target Price of HKD 15.40.
The report indicates that CHINAHONGQIAO is expected to achieve a year-on-year net income growth of approximately 95% in 2024, reaching 22.3 billion RMB, in line with market expectations.
Strong earnings are mainly attributed to the significant increase in profit contributions from the alumina sector. This is due to tight domestic and foreign market supplies leading to soaring prices; stable earnings contributions from Aluminum alloy products; and the decline in prices of key raw materials such as Coal and carbon anodes.
The firm also noted that with the release of planned new capacity in domestic and overseas markets, profit shifts from alumina refining companies, and the planned new capacity output in both domestic and overseas markets, profits are expected to remain robust in 2025.
Morgan Stanley indicated that alumina prices are expected to decline with the release of planned new capacity in domestic and overseas markets. Meanwhile, aluminum prices in 2025 may be supported by the following factors: due to China's operational capacity hitting an upper limit of about 45 million tons, domestic supply growth is limited; and downstream market demand for Electrical Utilities, Autos, etc. remains strong.
This means that profits will shift from alumina refineries to aluminum smelters, thereby supporting CHINAHONGQIAO to achieve robust profitability in 2025.
