高盛则表示，对2025年中国国内卡车周期持审慎乐观态度，预计2025年卡车需求按年增长7%。高盛预计，明年年中或明年下半年将出现周期性拐点。若卡车置换政策的范围延长或可能扩大，则可能会有进一步的上涨空间。潍柴为该行应对周期性拐点的首选股票，并提供正向倾斜的风险回报。Weichai Power (02338) is currently up nearly 4%. As of the time of writing, it has increased by 3.85%, priced at 11.32 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 0.1 billion Hong Kong dollars.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, Weichai Power (02338) is currently up nearly 4%. As of the time of writing, it has increased by 3.85%, priced at 11.32 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 0.1 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Morgan Stanley previously released a Research Report stating that Weichai Power's profits in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, setting a historical high for the fourth quarter. The bank expects the pre-tax profit margin for 2024 to reach 8%, and 9% in 2025. It is expected that the domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks (HDT) from Weichai Power in 2025-26 will receive strong support from replacement cycles and policy support, as well as the company's strong cash flow and substantial cash reserves. The company is also taking measures to enhance shareholder returns, such as increasing the dividend payout ratio.
Goldman Sachs stated that it holds a cautiously optimistic view on the domestic truck cycle in China for 2025, expecting truck demand to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2025. Goldman Sachs anticipates a cyclical turning point may occur in mid-2024 or the second half of next year. If the scope of the truck replacement policy is extended or possibly expanded, there could be further upside potential. Weichai is the bank's preferred stock to respond to the cyclical turning point, providing a positive skew in risk and return.
