Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000157) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Carry?
As you can see below, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology had CN¥25.4b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥15.7b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥9.74b.
A Look At Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology had liabilities of CN¥48.0b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥20.5b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥15.7b and CN¥28.9b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥24.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥57.9b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
We'd say that Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.3), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 1k times, makes us even more comfortable. Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology grew its EBIT by 7.6% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. We think that Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
