美联储将发出Recently, the economic data from the USA has been mixed. Although the labor market seems to be trending weaker amidst fluctuations, inflation remains stubborn.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, DWS Chief U.S. Economist Christian Scherrmann commented on the USA's December FOMC meeting, noting that the recent economic data from the USA has been mixed. Although the labor market seems to be trending weaker amidst fluctuations, inflation remains stubborn. The latest consumer price index (CPI) for November met expectations, showing that price increases continue to slow down, but the momentum has clearly weakened in recent months. Nevertheless, there has been some progress in curbing inflation, and the opportunity for further interest rate cuts still exists, but the Fed is expected to slow down the pace of rate cuts after the December meeting. In addition, future fiscal and trade policies remain major unknowns.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated in the last meeting not to overassume or anticipate, but at least the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions should be considered in future outlook. Unlike other policy proposals (such as tax cuts, tariffs or immigration), there seems to be a consensus among congressional members on extending existing stimulus measures. Therefore, households and businesses may expect domestic demand to be even stronger, possibly increasing hiring or maintaining current Consumer.
The Federal Reserve will signal that it will take longer to lower interest rates to neutral levels (expected to be between 3% and 3.5%). Therefore, the upcoming economic forecast summary from the authorities is expected to show that the economy will continue to grow strongly in 2025, but the number of rate cuts will decrease, with inflation slightly rising. DWS has revised its forecast of interest rate cuts from 5 times to 3 times by the end of 2025 (including one in December). In terms of timing, the Fed is expected to change to quarterly adjustments in the first half of 2025, then pause the normalization of interest rate policy in the second half.
