DAH SING released its economic and market outlook for 2025. The Institutions predict that the Hang Seng Index may test 23,100 points in the first half of next year, with support around 17,000 points; high-yield stocks, domestic Consumer and policy-supported Sectors may have a relatively positive outlook.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, DAH SING released its economic and market outlook for 2025. The Institutions predict that Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025, the Hang Seng Index may test 23,100 points in the first half of next year, with support around 17,000 points; high-yield stocks, domestic Consumer and policy-supported Sectors may have a relatively positive outlook.
DAH SING's chief economist and strategy analyst, Wen Jiawei, stated that the outlook for major central banks to cut interest rates is uncertain, coupled with geopolitical tensions, which may increase the volatility of Hong Kong stocks. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will temporarily find some support at 17,000 points. If measures to stabilize the economy and the property market lead to economic growth stabilization and effectively promote corporate profitability, it may help the Hang Seng Index test 23,100 points in the first half of next year.
He mentioned that the mainland has rarely introduced extensive financial and MMF measures, and the Central Economic Work Conference indicated the need to stabilize the property and stock markets, which will also raise the fiscal deficit target and vigorously boost Consumer spending, reflecting the mainland's determination to stabilize the economy and the Real Estate market. Whether these measures can be truly effective still needs time to observe.
He pointed out that Hong Kong's overall economy will continue to face many challenges next year, as the consumption patterns of mainland visitors and those traveling to Hong Kong are changing, affecting the development of Retail Trade in Hong Kong, while the resumption of 'one visa multiple entries' in Shenzhen may have limited effects on boosting Retail Trade and attracting overnight visitors. Considering that local demand has not shown improvement and exports are also under pressure, Hong Kong's economic growth is estimated to be 2.8% in 2025.
Wen Jiawei also mentioned that Hong Kong's best lending rates have begun to follow the USA's downward trend, leading to a decrease in mortgage rates. Additionally, the Hong Kong government has relaxed the mortgage requirements for residential investment properties, which will help stabilize property prices and boost transaction volumes. However, the potential supply of new residential properties continues to increase, which may limit the rebound in second-hand property prices. It is anticipated that the overall increase in Hong Kong property prices in 2025 will be less than 5%.
