Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Academy Sports and Outdoors's Debt?
As you can see below, Academy Sports and Outdoors had US$486.1m of debt at November 2024, down from US$586.4m a year prior. On the flip side, it has US$296.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$190.2m.
How Strong Is Academy Sports and Outdoors' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Academy Sports and Outdoors had liabilities of US$1.21b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.92b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$296.0m in cash and US$18.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.82b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$3.82b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Academy Sports and Outdoors has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.27. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 14.4 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Academy Sports and Outdoors's EBIT dived 13%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Academy Sports and Outdoors's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Academy Sports and Outdoors produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 55% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
While Academy Sports and Outdoors's EBIT growth rate has us nervous. For example, its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Academy Sports and Outdoors is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Academy Sports and Outdoors's earnings per share history for free.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
