摩根士丹利研报指出，明年香港房地产市场未见起色，预期仍然充满挑战，利率维持于较高水平，对香港楼市整体发展不利。虽然一众本地地产股估值较便宜，但大摩认为，市场供应过剩，发展商存货堆积，对市场发展并无帮助，目前预测明年上半年住宅楼价会继续下跌，随着按揭成数提高、额外印花税取消、按揭利率下降、租金水平回升及人口流入等利好因素出现，应有助楼价于明年下半年上升。Hong Kong real estate stocks declined. As of press release, Link Property Fund (00823) fell 2.55% to HK$32.45; Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) fell 2.23% to HK$72.3; and Henderson Land (00012) fell 2.07% to HK$23.6.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Hong Kong real estate stocks were lower. As of press release, Link Property Fund (00823) fell 2.55% to HK$32.45; Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) fell 2.23% to HK$72.3; Henderson Land (00012) fell 2.07% to HK$23.6; and Hang Lung Properties (00101) fell 2.06% to HK$6.18.
According to the news, the Federal Reserve announced on December 18, local time, that it would lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.5%, in line with general market expectations. The bitmap shows that the forecast for next year's interest rate cuts has been adjusted from 4 times to 2 times. Powell said that we can be more careful when considering interest rate adjustments in the future; the path depends on making more progress in reducing inflation. On December 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
According to the Morgan Stanley Research Report, the Hong Kong real estate market will not improve next year. Expectations are still full of challenges. Interest rates remain at a high level, which is detrimental to the overall development of the Hong Kong property market. Although the valuations of many local real estate stocks are cheap, Damo believes that oversupply in the market and the accumulation of developers' inventory will not help market development. Currently, it is predicted that residential property prices will continue to fall in the first half of next year. With favorable factors such as an increase in the mortgage ratio, cancellation of additional stamp duty, a decline in mortgage interest rates, a recovery in rent levels, and population inflows, it should help property prices rise in the second half of next year.
