该民调分析师Tim Malloy表示，征收关税旨在平衡美国的进出口贸易，但选民们看起来十分担忧这一政策最终会损害美国自身的利益。① The plan by the incoming president of the USA, Trump, to impose tariffs seems to be unpopular among the public. According to a poll, 51% of American voters oppose tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China; ② Standard & Poor's states that the tariffs will raise inflation rates and decrease economic output in the USA, while some citizens and businesses are hoarding goods out of concern over the tariffs, leading to a significant increase in cargo throughput at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in November.
According to Caixin News on December 19 (editor: Ma Lan), the hallmark policy of the incoming president of the USA, Trump, is to impose tariffs. Although he has not yet taken office, he has already threatened to levy high tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, but this plan has not been welcomed by the American public.
A recent poll from Quinnipiac University in the USA shows that 51% of American voters oppose Trump's tariffs on imported goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. Among them, a majority of Democrats and independents have shown clear skepticism towards the tariffs, while Republicans tend to support the tariff policy.
This poll's Analyst Tim Malloy said that the tariffs are intended to balance the imports and exports of the USA, but voters seem very concerned that this policy will eventually harm the interests of the USA.
Another poll conducted by Emerson College also showed the same result, with the number of voters believing that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will have negative effects significantly outnumbering those who think it will bring positive effects, and both Democrats and Republicans show serious divisions on this issue.
There are no winners.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's stated that tariffs may push up inflation rates in the USA and reduce economic output. If Trump imposes a 10% tariff on global products and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, then inflation in the USA will rise by 1.8%, while economic output will decline by 1%.
It also added that in the short term, the USA will experience inflation due to tariffs, forcing businesses to pass on higher input costs to consumers; in the medium term, domestic GDP of the USA will be dragged down. Overall, American households will face income loss, and USA exports will also suffer losses due to trade retaliation.
Some people in the USA have started to stockpile goods early due to these concerns. Small business owner Herschel Wilson pointed out that he almost stockpiled all essentials after Trump won the election. He also emphasized that if tariffs really do come into play, he would have to pass those costs onto his customers, which means charging higher prices.
Patrick Hallinan, Chief Financial Officer of Stanley Agriculture Group, made the same choice, stating last month that the company is investing to increase inventory, with the key reason being tariffs. He claimed that during Trump's first term, the company was not proactive in pricing, but in the next four years, it would learn from its mistakes and adopt a more proactive pricing strategy, which means raising prices.
According to port data, the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which are primarily responsible for transportation of goods in Asia, both experienced a significant increase in throughput last month. Specifically, the Port of Los Angeles handled 16% more cargo year-on-year, while Long Beach saw an increase of 20.9%.
Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, expressed concern rather than satisfaction and warned that an increase in tariffs would lead to a decline in port cargo volumes and reduce the number of workers needed. In a trade war, there are no real winners.
