I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 19th.

・The Nikkei Average continued to decline for 5 days, and sales dominance declined due to falling US stocks, and developments showed reluctance

・The dollar and yen are strong, and yen is being sold due to the Bank of Japan putting off interest rate hikes

・Advantest ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to decline for 5 days, and sales dominance declined due to falling US stocks, and the development was reluctant

The Nikkei average continued to fall for 5 days. The forward transaction was closed at 38708.38 yen (estimated volume 1.2 billion 10 million shares), which was 373.33 yen lower (-0.96%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market continued to decline on the 18th. The NY Dow is 42326.87 dollars, which is 1123.03 dollars lower than the previous day, and the NASDAQ is 19392.69 points, which is 716.37 points lower. While signs of watching intensified ahead of the announcement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) results, it was mixed after they snuggled up. The Dow Jones Average, which had continued to decline until the day before, began with a slight decline, while buying entered part of the main stock and rose. The FOMC lowered the main policy interest rate by 0.25% as expected, but it declined due to disappointment that the interest rate cut forecast for 25 declined from the previous forecast. After that, the decline widened as long-term interest rates rose, and it ended.

In response to the drastic depreciation of US stocks, the Tokyo market also began trading with a sales advantage. The Nikkei Average temporarily fell over 700 yen from the previous day, but after one round of sales, the decline narrowed. There is a growing view that the results of the monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan to be announced today “there is a high probability that interest rate hikes will be postponed,” and it seems that they are reassuring material for the market. The rise in US interest rates also supports the fact that the exchange rate has depreciated in the middle of the 154 yen per dollar compared to the previous day.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, semiconductor stocks such as SoftBank Group ＜9984＞, Advantest ＜6857＞, Socionext ＜6526＞, Lasertech ＜6920＞, and Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ are generally cheap. Also, a corner of automobile stocks such as Mitsubishi (7211) and Mazda (7261), which had a buying advantage yesterday, fell, and Honda (7267) continued to fall, breaking year-to-date lows. In addition, real estate stocks such as Tokyo Tatemono ＜8804＞, Sumitomo Real Estate ＜8830＞, Mitsubishi Estate ＜8802＞, and Mitsui Fudosan ＜8801＞ are weak.

Meanwhile, Nissan's own (7201), which stopped high yesterday, temporarily rose after fluctuating, such as entering a negative zone compared to the previous day. Shipping stocks such as Kawasaki Kisen ＜9107＞ and NYK Line ＜9101＞ were also bought. In addition, IHI ＜7013＞, Yamato HD ＜9064＞, NTN ＜6472＞, Sumitomo Chemical ＜4005＞, Asahi ＜2502＞, Canon ＜7751＞, etc. rose.

By industry, while electricity/gas, nonferrous metals, real estate, petroleum and coal products, electrical equipment, etc. declined, shipping, other products, warehousing/transportation-related, textiles, foodstuffs, etc. rose.

The market is paying attention to when the results of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting will be announced. Since there are plenty of discussions, such as scrutinizing data based on FOMC results announced in the wee hours of dawn and publishing a “multifaceted review” summarizing untraditional monetary mitigation measures implemented in the 25 years since 1998, etc., it is expected that the announcement will be delayed. In the market, there is also a possibility that futures and exchange markets will react ahead of expectations if the announcement time is delayed. There is a possibility that the backstage Tokyo market will have rough price movements due to speculation ahead of schedule. There is a possibility that the Nikkei Average will turn around all at once, and there is also a possibility that it will drop one step lower, so I want to be wary of fluctuations.

■The dollar and yen are strong, and yen is being sold due to the Bank of Japan putting off interest rate hikes

The dollar and yen were in a steady position in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 19th, and the price was rounded up from 154 yen 44 yen to 155 yen 27 yen. In response to depreciation in Japanese stocks, yen buying took the lead in the early stages. However, when the Bank of Japan decided to postpone additional interest rate increases at the monetary policy meeting, yen sales became dominant, boosting major currencies.

The trading range up to this point is 154 yen 44 yen to 155 yen 27 sen for the dollar and yen, from 159 yen 85 yen to 161 yen 19 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0347 to 1.0390 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・8 stocks, such as Fujita Corporation ＜3370＞ and Do Holdings＜3457＞, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Advantest ＜6857＞ is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Number of housing starts in November in the US: 1.289 million units (forecast: 1.345 million units, October: 1.312 million units ← 1.311 million units)

・US-November housing construction permits: 1.505 million units (forecast: 1.43 million units, October: 1.419 million units ← 1.416 million units)

・U.S. Current account balance for the July-9 fiscal year: -310.9 billion dollars (forecast: -287.1 billion dollars, April-6 fiscal year: -275 billion dollars ← -266.8 billion dollars)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

“The labor market is less tight than it was in 2019"

“There is also a possibility that they will strengthen their cautious stance in considering additional adjustments”

“Interest rates have come very close to neutral levels”

“The policy is still judged to be significantly suppressive”

“Some members reflected potential policy changes in their predictions”

“Being close to neutrality is another reason to be cautious”

＜Domestic＞

・Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (last day)

・ 15:30 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Meeting

＜Overseas＞

Nothing in particular