Malaysia's export performance is anticipated to stay on an upward trajectory, supported by the country's neutral stance and diversified export structure. Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd highlighted that this growth is driven by front-loading orders in anticipation of potential trade conflicts and the ongoing global demand for electrical and electronics products.
However, the bank noted that trade policy uncertainties could dampen the global trade outlook. As a result, it has maintained its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts at 5.0% year-on-year (YoY) for 2024, with a slight dip to +4.9% YoY for 2025.
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Malaysia's total trade in November grew by 2.9%, reaching RM237.8 billion compared to RM231.1 billion a year earlier. This growth was primarily driven by increases in both exports and imports. Exports rose by 4.1% to RM126.6 billion, while imports grew by 1.6% to RM111.3 billion. The trade surplus surged by 26.3% to RM15.3 billion, marking the 55th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, in its separate note, suggested that Malaysia's external trade outlook remains positive due to the ongoing global recovery and the technology upcycle, coupled with easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024. The bank projected export growth of 5.3% in 2025 (compared to +5.0% in 2024) and a 5.6% increase in imports (compared to +12.8% in 2024), with GDP growth expected to reach 5%. Despite potential tariff challenges from US protectionist policies, CIMB emphasised that Malaysia's strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policies position the country well in a changing global trade environment.
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd echoed this outlook, noting that the growth in exports and imports would ease concerns over the current account balance for the fourth quarter of 2024, after two quarters of a modest surplus. For the 11 months of 2024, Maybank reported that exports and imports grew by 4.7% and 13.3%, respectively, leading to a trade surplus of RM117.9 billion.
Looking ahead to 2025, the bank cautioned that uncertainties surrounding US trade and tariff policies, particularly under a potential second term of former President Donald Trump, may result in slower growth for both exports and imports. Maybank forecasted export growth of +4.5%, import growth of +6.3%, and a lower trade surplus of RM112 billion.
