According to Zhitong Finance APP, after dropping from high positions in the last few months of 2024, European Medical Care stocks confront the risks of US politics and high-risk new drug trial results in the new year. Data shows that the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index has decreased by 12% since reaching a historic high at the end of August. In September, Medical Care was still the best-performing Sector in the European stock market this year. A key factor is that Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo-Nordisk A/S has given back some of its stock price gains.

For investors in European Medical Care stocks, the key lies in the clarity of US Medical Care policies. Previously, US President-elect Trump nominated prominent vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy for the next Secretary of Health and Human Services, triggering a wave of selling in European Medical Care stocks.

Gregoire Biollaz, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, stated that the political landscape in the USA "may have a significant impact, at least in terms of market sentiment." He added, "In terms of fundamental changes, will we see anything happen in 2025? There is still a lot of uncertainty related to this, and the medical system itself is challenging."

The strong performance of European Medical Care stocks previously was partly due to their appeal as a hedge against the backdrop of Europe's economic downturn, and the frenzy over weight-loss drugs also boosted valuations. However, this upward trend has stalled as investors become increasingly concerned about US policy prospects.

Data shows that last year, about 40% to 55% of the revenue of the six highest Market Cap pharmaceutical companies in Europe came from the USA. Analyst Emily Field from Barclays believes that as we enter 2025, the European pharmaceutical industry will face "a more challenging outlook." Analysts at HSBC, including Rajesh Kumar, stated that excluding the US market would mean that the economic benefits of drug development would not increase.

The portfolio managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons from the Asset Management company Janus Henderson Investors stated: "As we enter 2025, investors should prepare for ongoing volatility." "We also believe that now is a good time to focus on companies that are improving patient care standards or enhancing outcomes and efficiency in the Medical Care system."

JPMorgan Analysts believe that by 2025, concerns about the impact of the new US government on the European pharmaceutical Industry will gradually diminish. They stated in a report that any impact on government-funded vaccine or Pharmaceutical pricing is limited, "which might also moderately help the Industry achieve growth."

Aside from political factors, Analysts believe that the trial results for drugs under development will be the focus of next year, especially as some key drugs from pharmaceutical companies are about to lose patent protection. JPMorgan Analysts stated that Novo-Nordisk A/S, AstraZeneca (AZN.US), and Novartis AG (NVS.US) have "the most pipeline information flow and the highest probability of success." In contrast, they consider GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US) to have "limited information flow" and Roche's new drug data next year is also unlikely to succeed.

Intron Health Analyst Naresh Chouhan stated that the key trial results across the entire Industry—especially in areas where the success of late-stage studies remains uncertain but with significant sales potential—will determine who will be the winner in 2025. However, Naresh Chouhan urged investors to proceed with caution. Data shows that despite recent declines, the expected PE of the STOXX 600 Medical Care Index is still around 16 times, about 20% higher than the European benchmark stock index. He noted: "The Industry has rapidly become very complex, primarily because valuations have become very high, so any setback could have a significant impact on stock prices."