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华尔街与BTC的关系在2025年将迎来哪五大转变?

What are the five major changes that the relationship between Wall Street and BTC will undergo in 2025?

Jinse Finance ·  Dec 19 06:41

Author: Ledn CEO Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, CoinDesk; Translator: Bai Shui, Golden Finance.

When Michael Saylor announced in August 2020 that MicroStrategy would convert $0.25 billion of its financial reserves into Bitcoin, Wall Street Analysts considered it a reckless gamble. At that time, Saylor claimed that Bitcoin was "superior to Cash," which raised skepticism from traditional Banks.

However, those who mocked Bitcoin companies are now scrambling to participate in Bitcoin mortgage lending, as they compete to leverage the superior characteristics of Bitcoin as institutional-grade collateral and the burgeoning market fit of the product.

Traditional collateral (such as Real Estate) requires manual appraisal, subjective valuation, and complex legal frameworks (varies by jurisdiction). In contrast, Bitcoin offers instant verification of collateral support through public blockchain data, 24/7 real-time settlement and clearing capabilities, uniform quality regardless of geographical location or counterparty, and the ability to programmatically execute loan terms.

When lenders realize that they can instantly verify and potentially liquidate Bitcoin collateral at 3 a.m. on a Sunday—while Real Estate waits for manual appraisals, subjective valuations, and potential evictions—there will be no turning back.

1. Traditional Banking yields to Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) approach fundamentally changed the way publicly traded companies view Bitcoin as a financial asset. The company does not simply hold Bitcoin but has pioneered a financial model that uses the public market to expand its crypto position—issuing convertible notes and issuing stocks in the market to fund Bitcoin purchases. This strategy has allowed MicroStrategy to leverage the same financial engineering that has empowered traditional Banks, but with Bitcoin as the underlying asset instead of traditional financial instruments and Real Estate, resulting in MicroStrategy significantly outperforming spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Therefore, one of my predictions for 2025 is that MSTR will announce a 10-for-1 stock split to further expand its market share, as this will allow more investors to purchase Stocks and Options contracts. MicroStrategy's actions demonstrate how deeply Bitcoin has infiltrated traditional corporate financing.

I still believe that as long-term holders and new investors seek to gain more returns from their positions, financial services built around Bitcoin will become extremely popular. We expect the Bitcoin mortgage loans and revenue-generating products of global Bitcoin holders to grow rapidly.

Moreover, there is an almost poetic answer to why Bitcoin-backed loans have become so popular—they are a true representation of financial inclusion, with business owners in Medellín facing the same collateral requirements and interest rates as those in Madrid. Every person's Bitcoin has the same attributes, verification standards, and settlement processes. This standardization eliminates the arbitrary risk premiums that have historically been imposed on borrowers in Emerging Markets.

For decades, traditional Banks have been promoting 'Global Impact' while maintaining drastically different lending standards across regions. Now, Bitcoin-backed loans have exposed the inherent inefficiencies: remnants of an outdated financial system.

2. With the free flow of capital, borders disappear.

Countries are entering a new era of competition in Bitcoin businesses and capital. Therefore, we expect to see new tax incentives specifically targeting Bitcoin investors and businesses by 2025. These incentives will be implemented alongside fast visa programs for entrepreneurs in the Cryptos industry and regulatory frameworks aimed at attracting Bitcoin companies.

Historically, countries have competed for manufacturing bases or regional headquarters. They are now competing for Bitcoin mining businesses, trading venues, and custodial infrastructures.

El Salvador's status as a Bitcoin treasury represents an early experiment in national Bitcoin reserves. Although experimental, their actions and the recent proposal for a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the USA have forced traditional financial centers to confront the role of Bitcoin in sovereign finance.

Other countries will study and try to replicate these frameworks, preparing their own initiatives to attract capital flows priced in Bitcoin.

3. Opening the door for Bank participants.

In the debt market, necessity drives innovation. Public companies now frequently utilize the bond market and convertible notes to fund Bitcoin-related Trades. This practice has transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a cornerstone of corporate financial management.

Companies like Marathon Digital and Semler Scientific have successfully followed in the footsteps of MicroStrategy and reaped market rewards. This is the most significant signal for financial managers and CEOs. Bitcoin has now captured their attention.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin lending market has made significant progress over the past two years. Serious institutional lenders now require proper collateral isolation, transparent custodial arrangements, and conservative loan-to-value ratios. This standardization of risk management practices has precisely attracted previously reserved institutional capital.

Regulatory clarity has improved. More Banks should be opened to participate in Bitcoin financial products — which will benefit consumers the most, as new capital and competition will drive down interest rates and make Bitcoin-supported loans more attractive.

4. Bitcoin and Cryptos.mergers and acquisitions.Intensifying.

With the regulatory clarification involving Cryptos custody and other guidance from SAB 121, Banks will face a critical choice: to establish or acquire ways to enter the growing Bitcoin and loan markets. Therefore, we predict that at least one of the top 20 Banks in the USA will acquire a Crypto business in the coming year.

Banks wish to act quickly, as the development timeline for Crypto infrastructure exceeds the competitive window, while established companies are processing billions of transactions each month through proven systems.

These Operation platforms represent years of specialized development that Banks cannot quickly replicate. The acquisition premium has narrowed compared to the delay in entering the market.opportunity cost.

The combination of Operational maturity, regulatory clarity, and strategic necessity creates natural conditions for the Banking industry to acquire the ability to handle Cryptos.

5. The public market validates Bitcoin infrastructure.

The Crypto industry is expected to have a breakthrough year in the public market. We anticipate that at least one high-profile Crypto initial public offering will appear in the USA, with a valuation exceeding 10 billion dollars. Major digital asset companies have established sophisticated institutional service layers, with revenue streams now comparable to those of traditional Banks, processing billions of dollars in daily transactions, managing substantial custody businesses under stringent compliance frameworks, and generating stable fee revenues from regulated activities.

Therefore, the next chapter of finance will not be written by those who resist this change, but by those who recognize that their survival depends on embracing change.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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This page is machine-translated. Moomoo tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.