高盛预计，到明年3月，通胀数据预计将有所改善，劳动力市场不会进一步恶化。除了2025年的三次降息，美联储还将在2026年降息两次，在2027年降息一次，最终达到3.125%的利率。高盛还指出：Goldman Sachs believes that Powell leaned dovish at the press conference, mentioning four times that Federal Reserve policy remains "significantly restrictive" and disagreeing with the view that the federal funds rate is close to neutral. Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts in March, June, and September next year, but it should be noted that the cut in March requires better inflation data or worse employment data to support it.
Last night, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot plot shows that only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, contrary to the previous market expectation of three. After receiving the signal, the market quickly adjusted expectations, anticipating a rate cut of 32 basis points in 2025, down from the previous 50 basis points.
However, Goldman Sachs Analyst Jan Hatzius and his team released a report stating that they still maintain a more dovish outlook, expecting one rate cut each in March, June, and September next year. It is important to note that the March rate cut requires better inflation data or worse employment data to support it.
Goldman Sachs expects that by March next year, inflation data is expected to improve, and the labor market will not deteriorate further. In addition to the three rate cuts in 2025, the Federal Reserve is also expected to cut rates twice in 2026 and once in 2027, ultimately reaching an interest rate of 3.125%. Goldman Sachs also pointed out:
Chairman Powell leaned dovishly during the press conference, mentioning four times that Federal Reserve policy remains 'significantly restrictive' and disagreed with the view that 'federal funds rate is close to neutral.' However, other officials are more hawkish than expected, and since Trump took office, they have increasingly been likely to limit the Fed's rate-cutting space due to risks such as tariffs.
Dovish Powell.
Goldman Sachs stated that yesterday's Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) meeting supported Goldman Sachs' dovish expectations while also carrying certain risks. Support came from Powell.
First, Powell clearly stated that he believes inflation will return to target, and the cooling of the labor market still needs attention.
Powell stated that the return to the inflation target "is still largely on track" and he is "confident" about this. Powell also reiterated that the labor market is not a major source of inflation pressure, Commodity inflation has normalized, and housing may decline further as the catch-up effect fades. The recent rise in inflation mainly reflects the impact of the stock market on the financial services category, which "does not really reflect the tensions in the economy."
Regarding the labor market, Powell mentioned at least ten times that the labor market has cooled or is gradually cooling, and he mentioned three times that the labor market is looser than in 2019. Powell reiterated that this is not a necessary condition for the return to the inflation target, but the FOMC will continue to monitor this.
Secondly, Powell emphasized four times that the Federal Reserve's current MMF policy is still "significantly restrictive", which indicates that he does not agree with the view recently expressed by some members that the federal funds rate is close to neutral.
Other hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve
As mentioned above, support comes from Powell, while risk factors come from other officials of the Federal Reserve.
First, some FOMC members are behaving more hawkish than Goldman Sachs expected. Recent comments have indicated that some members have a more hawkish view on the balance of inflation and employment risks. At last night's meeting, one member opposed a rate cut, and four members softly opposed it (the dot plot shows they expect next year's rates to be above 4.0%).
Secondly, since Trump took office, uncertainty about tariffs or the potential for high tariffs imposed by the USA may limit the Federal Reserve's space for rate cuts.
The FOMC may be concerned that tariffs drive inflation higher, so out of caution, the Federal Reserve may choose to slow down the pace of rate cuts; after all, Powell mentioned last night: "When the path is uncertain, you need to move more slowly."
However, Goldman Sachs also stated that the anticipated tariffs are not necessarily going to prevent interest rate cuts, as they will only cause a one-time increase in core PCE inflation, peaking at 30-40 basis points. Additionally, the impact of tariffs on interest rates is two-way; for example, the impact of tariffs in 2019 actually contributed to interest rate cuts.
