Cathay Pacific Junan maintained adjusted net profit of 2.801/3.517/4.202 billion yuan due to Kanzhun in 2024/25/26.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report stating that Kanzhun Recruitment-W (02076) was “increased” rating. The company maintains a trend of continuous increase in profit margins through improved efficiency and a focus on profitable projects. Furthermore, based on its own matching efficiency advantage, the company's share continues to increase, maintaining the 2024/25/26 adjusted net profit of 2.801/3.517/4.202 billion yuan, with a target price of HK$64.11. The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the growth rate is slowing down, but its share is still increasing, and profit margins will continue to rise driven by scale effects.
Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
Performance summary:
The company's 24Q3 revenue was 1.911 billions/ +19%, cash revenue growth rate was about 10%, GAAP net profit to mother 0.422 billion/ +36.22%, adjusted net profit to mother 0.718 billion/ +26.42%, and adjusted net profit margin to mother 24.5%.
Revenue growth continues to slow.
① Revenue growth continues to slow quarter by quarter, and growth is under pressure, but this is expected. The company has had full communication before. Fluctuations in corporate demand under the influence of the macro environment are the main cause. ② The number of users is still increasing, but they are mainly job seekers, so the C/B ratio is expected to remain under pressure. Looking at the user structure, the demand of leading KA companies is more stable during the economic fluctuation phase, so ARPPU also increased. ③ The revenue growth rate is expected to be 13.6-14.6% in 2024Q4, and the revenue growth rate is expected to be +10% in 25. Profit margins will continue to rise driven by economies of scale and efficiency improvements.
Focus on profitable projects and profit margins, and there is still room for improvement in profit margins.
① Under growth pressure, the company continued the strategy of the previous quarter: 1) maintaining the trend of continuous increase in profit margins by reducing costs and increasing efficiency; 2) the strategy of focusing on short-term profitable goals. ② Reflected in financial reports, it is clearly more restrained sales investment and a rapidly reduced R&D cost rate. However, the cost of short-term personnel adjustments has led to an increase in the management cost rate. ③ At present, Kanzhun has changed from the logic of high growth against the trend to a stage of stable profit release. The subsequent growth of Kanzhun comes from: 1) Compared with peers, the company still clearly matches efficiency advantages and brand awareness in blue collar, KA, etc., so it is in the phase of increasing its share. 2) Going overseas and internationalization will be an important increase. 3) Under policy catalysis, the recruitment and employment demand of enterprises driven by the economy is picking up.
