With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.3x McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent earnings growth for McDonald's has been in line with the market. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, McDonald's would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 18% overall rise in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.4% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it concerning that McDonald's is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of McDonald's' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for McDonald's you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than McDonald's. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.