China East Education Holdings' (HKG:667) stock is up by a considerable 15% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to China East Education Holdings' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China East Education Holdings is:

6.2% = CN¥340m ÷ CN¥5.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every HK$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn HK$0.06 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of China East Education Holdings' Earnings Growth And 6.2% ROE

When you first look at it, China East Education Holdings' ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 12%. For this reason, China East Education Holdings' five year net income decline of 21% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

That being said, we compared China East Education Holdings' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 6.8% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if China East Education Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is China East Education Holdings Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

China East Education Holdings' very high three-year median payout ratio of 128% over the last three years suggests that the company is paying its shareholders more than what it is earning and this explains the company's shrinking earnings. Paying a dividend beyond their means is usually not viable over the long term.

Moreover, China East Education Holdings has been paying dividends for five years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 81% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 9.5% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, China East Education Holdings' performance is quite a big let-down. Particularly, its ROE is a huge disappointment, not to mention its lack of proper reinvestment into the business. As a result its earnings growth has also been quite disappointing. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.