东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，2025年央行会继续实施有力度的降息降准，其中政策性降息幅度有可能达到0.5个百分点，明显高于今年0.3个百分点的降息幅度，而且各类结构性货币政策工具利率也会适时下调，进而引导企业和居民融资成本下行。More news, continuously updating.
The last round of LPR Quotes for the year has been released, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR remaining unchanged.
On December 20, Friday, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) on December 20, 2024, would be: 1-year LPR at 3.1%, 5-year LPR at 3.6%, both unchanged from the previous values, and these LPRs will be effective until the next release.
Wang Qing, Chief Macroeconomic Analyst of Orient Securities, expects that in 2025, the central bank will continue to implement substantial interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with the policy interest rate cut potentially reaching 0.5 percentage points, significantly higher than this year's reduction of 0.3 percentage points, and various types of structural MMF tools' rates will also be adjusted downwards in due course, thereby guiding the financing costs for businesses and residents to decline.
Wang Qing believes that there is a possibility of continuing to implement substantial targeted interest rate cuts for residential mortgages in 2025 through significantly guiding the decline of the 5-year and above LPR (Loan Market Quote Rate). This is a key step to promote stability in the Real Estate market.
Looking ahead, Wen Bin, Chief Economist of MINSHENG BANK, stated that although there is still room for improvement in domestic demand and financing, considering that the policy effects are still being released and market confidence has been somewhat boosted, and since the reduction in policy interest rates this year has reached the largest in nearly four years, the necessity and urgency of further rate cuts this year will decrease. It is expected that next year, the intensity of monetary policy control will continue to increase, with more space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, which will also drive the further decline of the LPR Quotes.
CITIC SEC expects the reverse repurchase rate to decrease by 40-50bps next year, and the reductions in LPR and loan rates may be even larger.
