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The Three-year Underlying Earnings Growth at Shanxi Blue Flame Holding (SZSE:000968) Is Promising, but the Shareholders Are Still in the Red Over That Time

山西ブルーフレームホールディング(SZSE:000968)の3年間の基礎的な収益成長は期待できるが、その期間中の株主は依然として赤字である。

Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/20 11:50

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited (SZSE:000968) share price has gained 18% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 35% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

With the stock having lost 6.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, Shanxi Blue Flame Holding actually managed to grow EPS by 49% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 6.9% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Shanxi Blue Flame Holding more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SZSE:000968 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 20th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling Shanxi Blue Flame Holding stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Shanxi Blue Flame Holding the TSR over the last 3 years was -32%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Shanxi Blue Flame Holding had a tough year, with a total loss of 4.3% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 6% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Shanxi Blue Flame Holding you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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