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飙涨1148%!市值突破2800亿,四年亏超36亿

Soaring by 1148%! Market Cap surpasses 280 billion, over 3.6 billion losses in four years.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Dec 20, 2024 16:34

Cote evaluation and middle special evaluation go hand in hand

There was another wave of hard technology. The Cambrian period rose 6.28% to another record high. The increase during the year reached 400.85%, and the market capitalization exceeded 280 billion.

Regarding soaring stock prices, some analysts believe that in addition to being stimulated by US chip stocks, recent position adjustments in major indices also contributed to the outbreak of the Cambrian period to a certain extent. Cambrian was transferred to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the China Securities A500 Index. The new index samples took effect after the market closed on December 13.

Cambrian's stock price rose from a low of 54.15 yuan/share in early 2023 to the latest closing price of 675.95 yuan. The range increase reached an astonishing 1148%, making it the only chip stock 10 times that of A-shares during the same period.

Facing repeated new highs in stock prices, some market participants are reminding that there is a serious divergence between Cambrian's performance and stock price performance. Cambrian has been losing money for many years from listing in 2020 to 2023.

From 2021 to 2023, Cambrian revenue was 0.721 billion yuan, 0.729 billion yuan, and 0.709 billion yuan, respectively; revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.185 billion yuan. The net profit of the Cambrian period was 0.825 billion yuan in 2021, 1.256 billion yuan in 2022, 0.848 billion yuan in 2023, and 0.724 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024.

Netizens' comments: Cambrian's revenue for the first three quarters of this year was less than 0.2 billion, lost 0.7 billion, and market capitalization was 280 billion. I really didn't expect it. I couldn't understand it, but it was really shocking.

Since this year, market estimates and China's special evaluations have gone hand in hand. The Cote Assessment represents the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF, and the China Special Assessment represents the bank ETF with the highest increase during the year.

Big

Recently, A-shares have continued to fluctuate, and the belief in high dividends has once again made a comeback.

As an important indicator affecting market pricing in the capital market — the 10-year treasury bond yield, changes affect the pricing of other assets. As a representative of risk-free interest rates, this indicator has rarely fallen below 1.8% recently, hitting a new low since the end of 2007.

Against the backdrop of declining risk-free interest rates and increased safe-haven demand at the end of the year, capital once again flocked to dividend assets.

Among them, the China Securities Dividend Low Wave Index rose by more than 15% during the year, and related ETFs attracted large inflows of capital.

The data shows that in the past month, dividend-themed ETFs have received a net inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan. Since this year, the size of dividend-related ETFs has exploded. As of December 19, the total size of dividend-themed ETFs has broken the 100 billion mark.

Big(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information, and does not constitute any investment advice)

Why are funds pouring into dividend assets? Due to the fact that many dividend assets are mature in the industry, the competitive pattern is stable, and the willingness of leading companies to expand their capital has declined, so there is more capital to increase dividends and expand investor returns.

Therefore, in the context of risk-free interest rates continuing to decline, the high dividend nature of dividend assets has attracted a large amount of capital to pursue stability. Taking insurance funds as an example, the allocation ratio for high-dividend products showed an upward trend from 2021 to 2023.

According to Wind data, since the beginning of the year, insurance capital has listed A-share and H-share listed companies several times, mainly in high-dividend industries such as utilities, environmental protection, and banking, mostly dividend assets.

Overall, in the context of declining interest rates, dividend assets attract capital allocation due to higher dividend ratios. However, on the other hand, there is also often a negative correlation between valuations and dividend rates. Once the rapid influx of capital pushes up short-term valuations and causes dividend rates to decline, it can also easily cause shocks and mood swings.

A-shares have ushered in a historic moment. This year, the dividends and repurchase trends of A-share superiors were strong, and the amounts all reached record highs. Among them, the gradual spread of cancellation repurchases was a prominent feature, which profoundly affected the market pattern and investor expectations.

Specifically, as many as 3,967 listed companies issued cash dividend announcements, involving amounts as high as 2.35 trillion yuan. 2,114 listed companies implemented repurchases for a total amount of 162.681 billion yuan.

The amount of A-share refinancing hit a 17-year low. Including fixed increases in A-shares, convertible bonds, and allotments, these items add up to about 215.2 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 71% over the previous year.

Judging from current data, the amount of dividends and repurchases of A-shares greatly exceeds the total amount of IPOs, refinancing, and shareholders' holdings reduction.

In recent years, with the continuous promotion of policies, the market has paid more attention to investor returns. A-shares are no longer a money market; they are gradually shifting from the financing market to the investment market.

Referring to the US stock experience, the increase in investor returns has a profound impact on the long-term trend of the market.

According to the data, the biggest buyer of US stocks is actually the company itself. From 2007 to 2023, the cumulative repurchase of S&P 500 index constituent stocks was about 9.5 trillion US dollars, the total dividend for the same period was about 6.97 trillion US dollars, and the total amount of IPOs and refinancing was about 2.17 trillion US dollars.

The amount of dividend repurchases greatly exceeded the amount of financing. Dividend repurchases by listed companies became one of the most important buyers of US stocks, and the inflow of real money boosted the stock market.

Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategy analyst at Societe Generale Securities, said a few days ago that in 2024, A-shares changed the net financing pattern of previous years. The amount of refinancing, IPO financing, and shareholder holdings reduction was far lower than dividends and repurchases, and the A-share market began to clearly move towards net returns.

Liu Jinjin, chief Chinese stock strategist at Goldman Sachs, said that the successive repurchases of A-share listed companies this year are expected to bring additional benefits to investors. The total amount of repurchases next year is expected to double compared to this year, and the total dividends and repurchases of listed companies are expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan next year.

Today is Friday, I wish everyone a happy weekend and adjourned!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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