钢铁行业正处于减量发展阶段，产量或亟须进一步约束。目前行业正继续深入推进供给侧结构性改革，2024年粗钢产量调控的政策脉络清晰，未来控产预期进一步增强，落后产能有望加快出清。按照历史上部分国家在粗钢产量达峰后的产量变化趋势来看，进入峰值区后面临相对较长的调整期，钢铁产业有显著的规模效应，叠加我国正处于经济持续向好的阶段，行业仍有较强的需求支撑，预计粗钢控产将会有序开展、稳步推进。In 2025, policies will focus on both supply and demand sides, with expectations for supply contraction further enhancing, Steel prices are expected to stabilize, forming a "profit bottom," and the industry's profits may rebound from the bottom.
According to Zhixin Finance APP, Huafu Securities released Research Reports stating that in 2025, policies will work on both the supply and demand sides, with expectations for supply contraction further strengthened. Policies will increase financial support to stabilize steel demand, leading to a substantial improvement in the supply-demand relationship. Steel prices are expected to stabilize, forming a "profit bottom," and the industry's profits may rebound from the bottom. At the same time, Market Cap management is steadily advancing, with policy measures being reinforced, clear target directions, and many long-term undervalued symbols in the Steel Sector forming a "valuation bottom," likely leading to a reasonable return of sector valuation. Currently, steel inventory levels are relatively low, and the industrial supply-demand conflict is not obvious. With increased incremental policies, the Steel Sector has a solid basis for continued upward rebound.
Expectations for production control are increasing, and the regulation rhythm is expected to be steady and orderly.
The Steel Industry is currently in a stage of reduction development, and output may urgently need further constraints. The industry is continuing to deepen the supply-side structural reform. The policy framework for controlling crude steel output in 2024 is clear, and future expectations for production control are further strengthened, with backward capacity likely to accelerate in clearing. According to historical trends of production changes in some countries after reaching peak crude steel output, entering the peak zone faces a relatively long adjustment period. The Steel industry has significant scale effects, coupled with China's continuous economic improvement, the industry still has strong demand support. It is expected that crude steel production control will be conducted in an orderly manner and steadily advanced.
Exports have peaked at high levels, with policies supporting infrastructure to bolster domestic demand.
The domestic economy continues to develop positively, and steel use in manufacturing continues to contribute incremental growth. With the gradual implementation of incremental policies, important steel demand from real estate is expected to accelerate the bottoming process and stabilize. Against the backdrop of debt reduction, local governments will "lighten their burden," leading to increased investment in infrastructure, which is expected to form working volumes more quickly. The world economy continues to recover, and steel demand in other regions abroad is expected to grow. Coupled with the competitiveness of China's steel products, the growth in external demand will still provide strong support for steel exports. However, due to intensified trade frictions in the steel export market and the impact of increased tariffs by the USA, the growth in steel exports may slow down and reach a temporary peak.
It is recommended to pay attention to five main lines of opportunity.
Main Line 1: The variety structure is continuously optimized with the ability to weather cycles, consistently stable high dividends and yields, low valuation safety margins, and high odds: Hunan Valin Steel (000932.SZ), Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SH), Nanjing Iron & Steel (600282.SH).
Main Line 2: There are high technical or cost barriers that can resist "involution", while simultaneously laying out incremental projects or overseas projects: Citic Pacific Special Steel Group (000708.SZ), Yongjin Technology Group (603995.SH), Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech Metals (002318.SZ).
Main Line 3: Waiting for a turnaround in difficulties, with large performance elasticity, respectively focusing on extreme exploration of cost reduction space or exploring the valuation enhancement of state-owned enterprises: Fangda Special Steel Technology (600507.SH), Sansteel Minguang (002110.SZ).
Main Line 4: Other long-term assets below book value, belonging to central state-owned enterprises, with relatively stable performance operation: Xinyu Iron & Steel (600782.SH), Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes (000778.SZ), Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel (000825.SZ).
Main Line 5: Dual-use for military and civilian applications, high-temperature alloys as a growing niche sector with sustained high prosperity, belonging to industry leaders: Gaona Aero Material (300034.SZ), Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH).
Other concerns based on mineral resource endowment, steady operation, with performance benefiting from the volume increase of Copper Phase II, Bullish on valuation recovery: Hbis Resources (000923.SZ).
Risk Warning
The intensity of production control and restrictions is not as expected; the progress of domestic economic recovery is not as expected; the international trade environment is not as expected.
