Diversification is a key tool for dealing with stock price volatility. But if you're going to beat the market overall, you need to have individual stocks that outperform. One such company is The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:PNC), which saw its share price increase 25% in the last year, slightly above the market return of around 22% (not including dividends). On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 4.0% in three years.
In light of the stock dropping 6.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last year, PNC Financial Services Group actually saw its earnings per share drop 18%.
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
PNC Financial Services Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think PNC Financial Services Group will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, PNC Financial Services Group's TSR for the last 1 year was 30%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that PNC Financial Services Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 30% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 7%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with PNC Financial Services Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.