Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.The Federal Reserve's key inflation measure came in below expectations for November, delivering welcome relief Friday to markets after the central bank warned earlier this week of mounting price pressures heading into the new year.
联邦储备的关键通胀指标在11月份低于预期，在本周早些时候中央银行警告进入新年时价格压力加剧后，周五为市场带来了可喜的缓解。
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index grew by 2.4% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 2.3% in October, according to government data. The figure missed economist forecasts of 2.5%, yet it marked the second consecutive monthly increase in this key inflation measure.
根据政府数据，个人消费支出物价指数在2024年11月份同比增长了2.4%，高于10月份的2.3%。这一数据未能达到经济学家的2.5%的预测，但标志着这一关键通胀指标连续第二个月增长。
On a monthly basis, the PCE index advanced 0.1%, decelerating from October's 0.2%.
按月计算，个人消费支出指数上升了0.1%，低于10月份的0.2%。
Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.
剔除食品和能源等波动性元件，核心个人消费支出同比持平于2.8%，低于预期的2.9%。按月计算，核心个人消费支出增长放缓至0.1%，低于之前的0.3%和预期的0.2%。
In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%. Personal spending grew by 0.4%, slightly below forecasts but in line with October's increase, signaling resilient consumer activity heading into the holiday season.
与通胀数据同时发布的报告还显示，个人收入在11月份环比增长了0.3%，低于10月份的0.5%的增长和0.4%的预期。个人消费支出增长了0.4%，略低于预测，但与10月份的增长一致，显示出在节假日即将来临之际消费者活动的韧性。
Another Reality Check For Markets
市场的另一个现实检查
The unexpectedly softer November PCE reading could provide relief after days of heightened market volatility triggered by this week's Federal Reserve meeting.
意外放软的11月个人消费支出数据可能为经历了因本周联邦储备会议引发的市场剧烈波动的日子后提供了缓解。
On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts and raised its inflation projections for 2025 and beyond, reinforcing its hawkish stance.
周三，联邦储备暗示降息步伐放缓，并提高了对2025年及以后的通胀预测，进一步巩固了其鹰派立场。
Policymakers now forecast headline PCE inflation to reach 2.5% next year, up from the September projection of 2.1%, and 2.1% in 2026, compared to the previous 2% estimate. Similarly, core PCE inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2%, and 2.1% in 2026, revised from 2%.
决策者现在预测明年的核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀将达到2.5%，高于9月份预测的2.1%，而2026年为2.1%，相较于之前的2%预估。同时，核心PCE通胀预计将在2025年达到2.5%，高于2.2%，而2026年调整为2.1%，之前为2%。
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks further dashed market hopes when he announced a "new phase" in monetary policy, signaling caution against easing further as interest rates approach the neutral level.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话进一步打击了市场的希望，他宣布货币政策进入一个“新阶段”，并表明在利率接近中立水平时要谨慎对待进一步的放松。
Prior to Friday's data release, money markets had priced in 65 basis points of cumulative rate cuts for next year.
在周五的数据发布之前，货币市场已预计明年会有65个基点的累计降息。
Dollar Falls, Equity Futures Trim Losses
美元下跌，股指期货削减跌幅。
- The U.S. dollar index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) – tumbled 0.3%.
- Futures on major U.S. indices trimmed premarket losses, with contracts on the S&P 500 down by 0.7% at 8:35 a.m. in New York. On Thursday the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – closed 0.1% lower, bringing its cumulative decline since the Fed's meeting to over 3%.
- Gold surged by 0.6% to $2,610 per ounce.
- Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) slightly rebounded after the news to above $95,000 levels, cutting daily losses to 2%. Prior to this week's Fed meeting, the largest cryptocurrency had reached an all-time high of $108,364.
- 由景顺跟踪的美国美元指数（DXY）下跌了0.3%。
- 美国主要指数的期货在盘前修正了跌幅，标准普尔500指数的合约在纽约时间上午8:35下跌了0.7%。周四，标普500指数由SPDR 标普500指数ETF Trust（纽交所：SPY）跟踪，收盘下跌0.1%，自美联储会议以来累计下跌超过3%。
- 黄金上涨了0.6%，达到每盎司2610美元。
- 比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）在消息发布后略微反弹，突破9.5万美元，日损失降至2%。在本周美联储会议之前，最大的数字货币曾达到108,364美元的历史最高点。
- US Stocks To Open Lower As Traders Brace For 'Triple Witching' Hour: Analyst Says End Of The Year Recovery 'Would Not Surprise Anyone'
- 美国股票将在交易员为 '三重女巫' 时刻做好准备时低开：分析师表示年末复苏 '不会让任何人感到惊讶'
Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自Shutterstock。
