Alco Holdings Limited (HKG:328) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 85% share price drop in the last month. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 78% loss during that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, it's still not a stretch to say that Alco Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Consumer Durables industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

What Does Alco Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Alco Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Alco Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 8.6% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 89% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Alco Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Alco Holdings' P/S?

Alco Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our look at Alco Holdings revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Alco Holdings (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.