■ Developments tied to US stocks that have plummeted due to “hawkish” interest rate cuts

This week's Nikkei Average fell to 38701.90 yen, which depreciated 768.54 yen (-1.95%) per week. As the mood to determine the results of the monetary policy meeting between the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on 17-18 and the Bank of Japan on 18-19 intensified, it looked like Japanese stocks were also slightly affected by the sharp decline in US stocks.

Interest rates were cut by 0.25% as expected in the FOMC, but the 25 pension interest rate forecast (dot chart) was lowered from 4 (1.00%) interest rate cuts as of September to 2 (0.5%) interest rate cuts, and since interest rate cuts were “hawkish”, all 3 major indices such as the NY Dow plummeted in the US market on the 18th. This trend spread to the Tokyo market, and the Nikkei Average on the 19th fell below the 39,000 yen range. However, since the Bank of Japan announced that interest rate hikes would be postponed during lunch break, the Nikkei Average reduced the decline. The Nikkei Average was weak throughout the week and continued to fall for 6 days, but due to concerns about the depreciation of the yen in the exchange market and the 75-day moving average (75MA), etc., the transaction ended in the 38700 yen range.

The results of the Bank of Japan meeting were as expected, but after that, at the press conference starting at 15:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo expressed the idea that “whether one-notch (first floor) accuracy will increase in the next January outlook report, I cannot say anything at the moment” and “I want another notch to determine additional interest rate increases,” and “I want another notch to determine additional interest rate increases,” and “I want another notch to determine additional interest rate increases,” and “I want another notch to determine additional interest rate increases.” In the market, it is also difficult to implement interest rate hikes in January after the beginning of the year, and the view that interest rate hikes will be delayed from March to April when spring battle data is aligned has intensified, and the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar accelerated to just before the 1 dollar 158 yen level in the exchange market.

Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 2nd week of December, foreign investors oversold actual goods by 513.3 billion yen, overbought TOPIX futures by 510.4 billion yen, and 225 futures were overbought by 618 billion yen, resulting in a total overpurchase of 615.1 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors oversold actual goods by 331.2 billion yen, etc., for a total of 324.7 billion yen. The trust overbought the actual item by 178.4 billion yen, and the business corporation overbought the actual item by 193.1 billion yen, making it 24 consecutive weeks of overbuying.

■Entering year-end mode, individual investors take the lead

The US stock market rose on the 20th. The Dow average closed at 42840.26 dollars, which was 498.02 dollars higher than the previous day, and the NASDAQ closed at 19572.60, which was 199.83 points higher. Nikkei 225 futures from the Taisen Night Session closed at 38880 yen, 170 yen higher than the intraday closing price. In the exchange market, it remained in the 40 yen range of 156 yen per dollar.

It has passed the last important event of the year called the Japan-US central bank meeting, and the market price will enter year-end mode where business is quiet. This week was a report on the commencement of business integration studies by Nissan's own ＜7201＞ and Honda ＜7267＞, and since Nissan itself turned to prime market automobile stocks and auto parts suppliers, such as Mitsubishi (7211), which is the largest shareholder, the prime market trading price was constantly recorded from 4 trillion yen to 5 trillion yen.

However, important events will also pass next week, and since many overseas institutional investors will enter Christmas vacation, trading fees in the Prime Market will decrease, and there is a large possibility that the leading role in the market price will shift to individual investors. Since the 26th of this month is the last trading day to obtain rights to preferential treatment and dividends, it seems that interest in December settlement companies etc. will increase. There is also a possibility that individual investors' interest will shift to small and medium-sized stocks in the standard market or growth market due to a sense of expectation of a “falling out”, so it will be a market development centered on individual stocks. Short-term funds have flowed in and out from the stock price of 100 yen to low-ranking stocks in the 200 yen range, including listing on the Prime market, and there may be a succession of sharp rises and falls.

■6 business days until the big payment

The Nikkei average for the 2023 trade fair was 33,464 yen, and the annual increase was second only to 7,369 yen and 8,756 yen in 1989. In addition to hitting the highest value in history since the bubble, the 2024 Nikkei Average was added to the 40000 yen range for the first time in history, recorded the biggest decline in history of 4,451 yen on 8/5, and the biggest increase in history of 3217 yen on the next day, the 6th, making it a truly historic year. New Year's Eve in the 40000 yen range for the first time in history seems difficult, but I want to see the update of the highest price in Dainagai history, which exceeds 38915 yen in 1989. There are 6 business days until the big payment, but if we can maintain the current level, it can be said that it is a record we can aim for. Since annual performance has risen by about 5,000 yen, makeup purchases cannot be expected, but I would like to expect a “drop in” from the Nikkei Average.

■Japan's complete unemployment rate announced on the 27th

Next week, in Japan, the November corporate service price index, October business trend index (confirmed value), November housing starts on the 26th, November complete unemployment rate, effective job offer ratio, industrial production (preliminary value), retail sales value, department store/supermarket sales value, December Tokyo consumer price index, etc. are scheduled for the 25th.

Overseas, the Anglo/3rd quarter current account balance, real GDP (final value), US-December conference board consumer confidence index, US-12 conference board consumer confidence index on the 24th, the US/November durable goods orders (preliminary value), number of new housing sales, December Richmond Federal Bank manufacturing index, Turkey/central bank policy interest rate, number of new US/weekly unemployment insurance claims, crude oil inventory, etc. are scheduled for the 27th.