While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Nexteer Automotive Group Limited (HKG:1316) share price up 27% in a single quarter. But over the last three years we've seen a quite serious decline. Tragically, the share price declined 65% in that time. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. After all, could be that the fall was overdone.
After losing 7.1% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years that the share price fell, Nexteer Automotive Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 55% each year. In comparison the 30% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term. With a P/E ratio of 57.24, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Nexteer Automotive Group's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Nexteer Automotive Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Nexteer Automotive Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 27% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Nexteer Automotive Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
