'A Lack Of A Santa Claus Rally Would Be Concerning,' Says Analyst As S&P 500 Breadth Hits Lowest Since Jimmy Carter Era
'A Lack Of A Santa Claus Rally Would Be Concerning,' Says Analyst As S&P 500 Breadth Hits Lowest Since Jimmy Carter Era
Historical data paints a concerning picture for investors. After similar breadth declines since 1972, the S&P 500 has averaged just 0.1% returns over the following six months – significantly below the typical 4.5% gain seen during all periods.The S&P 500 is flashing a rare technical warning signal that hasn't been seen since the Jimmy Carter administration, with declining stocks dominating market action for 14 consecutive days through Thursday.
標準普爾500指數發出了自吉米·卡特政府以來未曾見過的稀有技術警告信號，持續14天的股票下跌主導了市場走勢，直到週四。
What Happened: "Market tops have to start somewhere, and many begin with breadth divergences," warns Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at NDR, noting this marks the longest decline streak since Oct. 15, 1978, Business Insider reported on Monday.
發生了什麼："市場頂部必須從某個地方開始，許多開始於廣度的背離，" NDR首席美國戰略師埃德·克利斯託德警告道，指出這標誌着自1978年10月15日以來最長的下跌週期，商業內幕週一報道。
The troubling market breadth comes as the benchmark index trades just 4% below its record high, masking deeper problems beneath the surface. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which better reflects the typical stock's performance, has already fallen 7% from its peak.
令人不安的市場廣度出現時，基準指數交易價僅低於歷史最高點4%，掩蓋了表面下更深層次的問題。等權重的標準普爾500指數更能反映典型股票的表現，已從高點下跌了7%。
Historical data paints a concerning picture for investors. After similar breadth declines since 1972, the S&P 500 has averaged just 0.1% returns over the following six months – significantly below the typical 4.5% gain seen during all periods.
歷史數據爲投資者描繪了一個令人擔憂的景象。自1972年以來，在類似的廣度下降之後，標準普爾500指數在接下來的六個月內平均僅返回0.1%——遠低於所有時期典型的4.5%的收益。
The market faces a critical test heading into the traditionally bullish year-end period. "A lack of a Santa Claus Rally would be concerning not only from a seasonal perspective, but it would allow breadth divergences to deepen," Clissold cautioned.
市場在進入傳統的看好年底時期時面臨關鍵考驗。"缺乏聖誕老人反彈不僅在季節性角度令人擔憂，還將加深廣度的背離，" 克利斯託德警告道。
Adding to the worries, NDR's sentiment indicators show investors have maintained extreme optimism since September, marking the seventh-longest stretch of excessive bullishness since 1995. This optimism, combined with the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance on 2025 interest rate cuts, has pushed the market toward its worst weekly performance since March 2023.
進一步加重憂慮的是，NDR的情緒因數顯示，自九月以來，投資者維持極度樂觀，這標誌着自1995年以來第七長的過度看好期。這樣的樂觀情緒，加上聯儲局最近對2025年利率下調的鷹派立場，已將市場推向自2023年3月以來最糟糕的每週表現。
"If the stock market cannot rectify recent breadth divergences in the next few weeks, it would suggest our concerns about a more difficult 2025 could come to fruition," Clissold concluded.
如果股票市場在接下來的幾周內無法糾正最近的廣度背離，這表明我們對2025年更困難的擔憂可能會成爲現實，" 克利斯託德總結道。
Why It Matters: The term "Santa Claus rally" was coined by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the "Stock Trader's Almanac." It refers to the tendency for stock prices to rise during the final five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year. This period often sees higher prices due to factors such as year-end portfolio rebalancing, positive holiday sales reports, and optimism for the year ahead, all of which can contribute to strong returns for major stock market indexes.
爲什麼這很重要："聖誕老人反彈"一詞由耶魯·赫希於1972年在《股票交易者年鑑》中創造。它指的是股票價格在年度最後五個交易日及翌年初兩個交易日內上漲的趨勢。由於年末投資組合再平衡、積極的假期銷售報告和對未來一年的樂觀情緒等因素，這一時期的價格通常較高，所有這些都可能爲主要股票市場指數的強勁回報提供助力。
When Benzinga asked if readers expect a Santa Clause rally, 57% responded that they expect one.
當Benzinga詢問讀者是否期待聖誕老人反彈時，57%的人表示他們期待這一反彈。
The S&P 500 warning comes even as the index surged over 1.5% to 5,956.61 on Friday.
儘管標準普爾500指數在週五上漲超過1.5%，達到5,956.61，但其警告依然存在。
The conflicting signals come as the benchmark index approaches what could be its best election year performance ever, having already notched 56 new all-time highs in 2024, according to Carson Research's chief market strategist Ryan Detrick.
這些矛盾的信號正值基準指數接近其歷史最佳選舉年表現之際，2024年已創下56次的新歷史高點，Carson Research首席市場策略師Ryan Detrick表示。
Price Action: Meanwhile, on Friday, the Dow traded up 1.55% to 43,000.53 while the NASDAQ rose 1.65% to 19,693.06. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 1.53% to 5,956.61. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which closely monitors the S&P 500 closed 1.20% higher and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed 0.87% higher, as per Benzinga Pro.
價格動態：與此同時，在週五，道瓊斯上漲1.55%，達到43,000.53，而納斯達克上漲1.65%，達到19,693.06。標準普爾500指數也上漲，增加1.53%，達5,956.61。緊密跟蹤標準普爾500的SPDR 標普500指數ETF（紐交所：SPY）收盤上漲1.20%，納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克：QQQ）則收盤上漲0.87%，根據Benzinga Pro的數據顯示。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免責聲明：此內容部分由Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Benzinga編輯審核和發佈。
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