世邦魏理仕预测，2024-28年美国现代化物流房地产的总回报CAGR为11.5%，在所有房地产类型中排名第一，这反映了现代化物流房地产租金持续增长的趋势，以及由于利率下调压缩资本化率而带来的潜在资本收益。BOC International released a research report stating that it covered the logistics real estate industry for the first time, giving leading ratings and giving Anbo (PLD.US) and SF Real Estate Trust (02191) “buy” ratings. The bank is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the industry, considering multiple demand growth drivers and improvements in the supply-demand relationship in the next few years. The bank also believes that in terms of both rent growth and potential capital gains, logistics real estate can provide excessive returns compared to other real estate assets. It also indicates that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will continue to drive the revaluation of logistics real estate trust funds (REITs) and lead the way in the short term.
The main views of BOC International are as follows:
Logistics real estate is expected to generate excessive returns.
CBRE predicts that in 2024-28, the total return CAGR for modern logistics real estate in the US will be 11.5%, ranking first among all real estate types. This reflects the trend of continuous growth in modern logistics real estate rents and potential capital gains due to lower interest rates to reduce capitalization rates.
After interest rate cuts are initiated, REITs will lead the way for 12-18 months.
Due to interest rate hikes and a high interest rate environment, the performance of global REITs lagged behind the market by about 30% in 2022 - 24. However, the bank's research shows that in the past three major interest rate cut cycles, the performance of REITs reversed after interest rate cuts began, especially 12-18 months after the start of the interest rate cut cycle.
Demand continues to grow, and the relationship between supply and demand is improving.
The bank believes that demand for logistics real estate will continue to be driven by the following factors: 1) booming development and increasing popularity of e-commerce; 2) growing demand for cold chain logistics; 3) increasing utilization rate of outsourced logistics; and 4) increasing demand for modern facilities to meet automation and ESG requirements. As the high interest rate environment interrupted construction progress, new construction projects in many countries also fell to a ten-year low. The bank expects reduced supply over the next few years to support rent levels.
