Original source of the text: Niugulu Yao.

In the latest video released on December 21, the cryptocurrency Analyst Rekt Capital attempts to answer the question, "What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin right now?" After reaching a historic high of $108,374 on December 17, the price of BTC dropped by more than -11%.

How low can the price of Bitcoin fall?

Rekt Capital analyzed the Bitcoin price pullbacks from a historical perspective, emphasizing the historical significance of weeks 6, 7, and 8 in the "price discovery uptrend." He drew on past cycles such as 2013, 2016-2017, and 2021, explaining that Bitcoin has a strong pullback tendency during these specific windows, with some declines even reaching 34% or more.

Rekt Capital stated, "It is important to understand these weeks because they often pose troubles for Bitcoin." He mentioned previous cycles that saw significant declines during this period. For example, in week 7 of the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a massive 75% pullback within 13 weeks. Similarly, during the 2016-2017 period, there was a 34% drop in week 8, highlighting the recurring vulnerability during these specific weeks.

As of the current cycle, Bitcoin has undergone a pullback of more than 10%, bringing its price into the historical key Resistance area of $96,537 on the weekly chart. Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of this support level, noting, "This historical support area has propelled Bitcoin to $108,000." He warned that failing to maintain this support could trigger a more severe pullback, dropping to $89,830.

By studying the price trends over the past few days, Rekt Capital pointed out the appearance of a bearish engulfing Candlestick Chart within the weekly timeframe, which is a Technical Indicator often associated with potential reversals. He observed, "We are losing the resistance that should become support." This loss indicates that the price may enter a correction phase, as it struggles to maintain its upward trajectory.

Rekt Capital also pointed out the importance of maintaining the 5-week Technical Indicator in his analysis. He warned, "If we lose this 5-week upward trend and the orange Trendlines, then more and more evidence suggests that we may be entering a correction phase."

Additionally, he mentioned the gap between $78,000 and $80,000 at the CME Group, a critical area that has yet to be filled. "A deep dive into the declines of 26%, 27%, and 28% might fill the entire gap at the CME Group," noted Rekt Capital.

Historically, gaps at the CME Group are often filled, while some gaps have never been filled. Despite various warning signs, Rekt Capital remains bullish in the long term. "These pullbacks are key to driving the upward trend in the parabolic phase of the future cycle," he explained. He draws on experiences from past cycles to illustrate how historical adjustments have provided the necessary "breathing room" for the market.

For instance, in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a 16% pullback in week 6 and an 8% drop in week 8, yet the overall trend continued to rise. Likewise, the current 10% pullback, while significant, can serve as a preparatory phase for the next stage of price discovery.

As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $95,000.