Jingu Financial News | According to a Research Report from Kainuan Securities, technological innovation is the most distinctive feature of Xiaopeng Motors (09868). After ups and downs, the integration of vehicle manufacturing and sales capabilities has significantly improved, and in Q1 2025, even in the off-season, there will be richer event catalysts compared to peers; M03 and P7+ are expected to return to the trend of increasing new Orders around Q2 2025, along with the facelift and new model launches which are likely to drive rapid sales growth in 2025. Cost-reduced models with platformization and increasing exports may drive a turning point in profitability.
The company stated that Xiaopeng is expected to release 4 new models in 2025 (including 1 with extended range) and multiple facelifts, with the proportion of exports stabilizing at 15%, which is expected to drive the delivery curve upward each quarter in 2025. The stable gross margin target for new models and major facelift models post-P7+ is expected to reach double digits, while higher gross margin export business steadily scales up, driving the achievement of breakeven for a single quarter before the end of 2025. All new models and important facelift Max versions after P7+ will adopt the AI Eagle Eye intelligent driving solution, expecting to achieve L3 intelligent driving experience under current Hardware in Q4 2025. The company is focusing on Smart Automobile as the foundation, broadly laying out AI Chips, large models, Siasun Robot&Automation, and flying cars, which are expected to form a synergy in the future.
The company maintains its expected revenue for 2024-2026 at 41.03/95.56/122.06 billion yuan. Based on platform technology driving cost reduction and gross margin improvement, it maintains the expected Non-GAAP Net income for 2024-2026 at -5.38/-2.23/0.34 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted EPS of -2.8/-1.2/0.2 yuan. The current stock price of 48.60 HKD corresponds to a PS ratio of 2.1/0.9/0.7 for 2024-2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
