Jinwu Financial News | Tianfeng's Research Reports indicate that the bank believes that by 2025, benefiting from the advancement of physical work in Infrastructure and the recovery of new constructions in the real estate sector, the decline in Cement demand is expected to narrow, while the supply side will gradually exert its effort. In the short term, staggered production remains the most effective means to adjust the supply and demand balance. In 2025, as the restrictions on overproduction policies become increasingly stringent, enterprises that exceed production Indicators will exit the small and medium-sized capacities. The Industry is expected to start achieving a true capacity clear-out, while from 2027 onwards, it will enter a deepening phase of Carbon Trading, with the optimization effects of the industry's capacities expected to become more evident.
The bank stated that in October, the East China CNI Yangtze Index region began to significantly raise prices, which gradually spread to Central China, Southern China, and other areas. Profits in the fourth quarter are expected to start rising from the bottom, while it also lays a good foundation for price increases at the beginning of 2025. Under the dual drive of policy impulses on the supply side and the strengthening of self-restraint due to the growth of enterprises' profit demands, the bank remains Bullish on the upward elasticity of domestic Cement enterprises' profits in 2025, recommending CONCH CEMENT (00914), Huaxin Cement (06655), Gansu Shangfeng Cement, and CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313) as growth-oriented. For overseas expansion, WESTCHINACEMENT (02233) is recommended as the leading enterprise.
