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银行股连日冲高恒指收复两万点 财政端积极信号利好反弹延续|港股风向标

Bank stocks have surged for several consecutive days, and the Hang Seng Index has recovered to 20,000 points. Bullish Signals from the fiscal side are favorable for the continuation of the rebound | Hong Kong stock barometer.

cls.cn ·  Dec 24 21:27

① The Hang Seng Index stands above the 20,000 mark. Why is the short-term trend so strong? ② The fiscal side is releasing Bullish Signals. Can it support a sustained rebound?

According to the Finance Association on December 24 (Editor: Feng Yi), due to the Christmas holiday, Hong Kong stocks only traded for half a day. As of the morning close, the three major indexes opened high and maintained their upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and the National Index rising by 1.08% and 1.25% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index returning above 0.02 million points, while the Hang Seng TECH Index rose by 1.12%.

Let's look at today's market hotspots: bank stocks have surged for several consecutive days, with the Hang Seng Index standing back above the 20,000 mark; the Beginning with Middle Letter main line continues to be active, with "WeChat Mini Store" speculation heating up; the fiscal side is releasing Bullish Signals, and the A-shares accelerated upward in the afternoon.

[Bank stocks surge for several consecutive days; the Hang Seng Index stands back above the 20,000 mark]

On the market, most large Technology stocks rose, with XIAOMI-W up over 3%, Alibaba up 2.65%, Kuaishou and Baidu up over 1%, NetEase down over 1%, and Meituan and Tencent in the red.

In other hot sectors, bank stocks have hit new highs for the second consecutive day, and the five major Chinese banks including Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China, Agricultural Bank Of China, Bank Of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank Of Communications have all set historical highs. Additionally, price increases have driven shipping stocks higher, with the sectors of oil, Insurance, photovoltaics, home appliances, Consumer Electronics, and Dining also rising sequentially.

Among the declining sectors, Theater stocks are experiencing a short-term pullback, while rare earths, gaming, and Macau Casino stocks have slightly weakened.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index continues to rebound in the short term, driven by the Beginning with Middle Letter market trend. Today's half-day turnover was 84.59 billion Hong Kong dollars, slightly increasing compared to the same period the previous day. The total short-selling amount today was 8.087 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a short-selling ratio of 9.56%, a new low in the past 5 days.

XIAOMI-W, Alibaba-W, and Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China have the top three short-selling amounts, which are 0.711 billion HKD, 0.511 billion HKD, and 0.449 billion HKD respectively.

[Sectors Beginning with Middle Letter continue to be active, "WeChat Shop" speculation is hot.]

In terms of market trends, the rebound continues to be driven by sectors with a high content of Beginning with Middle Letter such as finance, oil, and shipping.

However, despite the Hang Seng Index rebounding above the 20,000-point mark, there has not been a large-scale influx of funds. This may be due to the influence of the Christmas holiday break, where the willingness for defensive risk aversion remains evident.

This week, the gray testing of the "Gift Giving" feature in WeChat Shop has sparked market interest in Tencent and the e-commerce service concept. WEIMOB INC (02013.HK) has surged over 115% in the last four trading days, capturing market attention.

It is worth mentioning that with the Christmas and New Year's holidays approaching, as well as the upcoming Spring Festival, the market has high expectations for the WeChat "Gift Giving" feature in the short term.

According to a circulated meeting minutes of WeChat e-commerce communications, the WeChat gifting feature is part of a larger WeChat e-commerce plan. The online text states that this feature has been opened to whitelisted users for less than a week, with over 0.3 billion users reached cumulatively and nearly 2 million users placing orders yesterday (December 19), with daily expected GMV over 0.3 billion yuan around the Spring Festival.

Tencent's PR director Zhang Jun also posted in a social media circle today, seemingly in response, stating that Tencent does not have grand plans for itself, but simply wants to do something practical.

Under the impetus of various positive news and expectations, the popularity of WeChat stores is expected to continue this week, potentially leading to a round of speculation on related concept stocks.

[The fiscal side releases Bullish Signals, the A-shares accelerate upward in the afternoon.]

In addition, today the A-shares accelerated upward as it approached the close, the Hang Seng Index recovered above 20,000 points, and the SSE Composite Index also approached the 3,400 points, highlighting the strength of short-term sentiment recovery.

On the news front, the National Financial Work Conference was held in Peking from December 23 to 24. The meeting pointed out that by 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy should be implemented, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and arranging for larger-scale government Bonds. At the same time, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was also held in Peking today.

In fact, since the two important meetings took place at the beginning of the month, there have been continuous meetings regarding policy implementation from various ministries, providing considerable support for short-term rebounds.

On the other hand, the market focus has also started to shift towards the year-end market. Goldman Sachs expects that the MSCI Chinese Index will see a 7% profit increase in 2025 and a 10% increase in 2026.

Interestingly, today's treasury bond market also welcomed Bullish Signals. The long-end yields of on-the-spot interbank securities accelerated upward, potentially alleviating the concentrated Inflow of funds into the bond market and balancing stock market liquidity.

HTSC pointed out that against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts, accelerated Outflow of foreign capital and strengthening short positions might be the main reasons for last week's weakness in Hong Kong stocks, but short selling has already entered a crowded Range.

During the Christmas holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed on December 25 and December 26 for two days, and normal trading will resume on December 27. The movements of A-shares and the Beginning with Middle Letter Sector during this time are also worth tracking, as they can serve as a reference for the direction of the Hang Seng Index after the holiday.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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